February 2012 Archives

I have been reading Chris Mullins autobiography, the latest volume, "A Walk-On Part". He comes across as a thoroughly decent man. Of course everyone wants to be loved, and it would take superhuman objectivity to present oneself in an entirely neutral light, but I find it hard to believe that he is hiding anything very objectionable about his personality.

He is a true socialist, and believes that the moral case for redistribution of income is so strong that it justifies the damage to incentives and the consequent loss of total economic output. He does not put it this way, but this comes across from what he writes. This is an entirely respectable argument, which cannot be resolved by debate but by measurement, itself a very difficult matter. Not that Chris is concerned about ideology. His diaries are a great read and illuminate the characters of the major figures of the Blair years far more brightly than their own autobiographies are ever likely to.

Although these diaries are now very old, covering the period 1994 to 1999, the issue of income and the redistribution of it is as fresh as ever. In spite of their being, now, a Conservative-dominated administration, feelings seem to be stronger than ever that income is too unequally distributed in the UK and the USA. The Occupy Movement, in spite of its rather incoherent aims, is widely supported, and plutocratic candidates like Mitt Romney are now struggling to get elected in a way that would have been suprising even five years ago.

I am sure that the cause of this change in sentiment is the fact that people are both feeling poorer, and feeling that there is a dwindling chance of them becoming any less poor. Somehow it's much  easier to tolerate extreme wealth if one's own income is at least moving in the right direction.

This is all very familiar, but it seems to me that the debate is very limited. It seems to me that inequalities of income are a consequence of inequalities of power. Lawyers, doctors, bankers, private equity investors, CEOs, hedge fund managers, bankers, actuaries, fund managers, accountants all benefit from a power structure which they can exploit to get, to a varying extent, above-average incomes. They may well have above-average academic success and personal qualities, but this is largely a result of a competition to do these jobs, as opposed to the nature of the jobs themselves. Of course there is a competitive aspect of some of these jobs, and, in some cases, maybe law and investment banking, there is a winner-takes-all aspect which means that inevitably only candidates at the extreme of the distribution will be successful.
 
Correcting this situation would mean taking on powerful vested interests. These high-earning groups are heavily represented both directly, and via well-funded lobbying. It is hard to see how taking on these pillars of the establishment could be done by a Conservative administration, but it's very sad to see that the previous nominally socialist administration not only did nothing, but did not seem to appreciate that tackling the sources of inequality would be much more effective than (weakly) trying to tax it out of existence. This would also have avoided many of the problems of incentive destruction that we have seen.
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I am very fortunate to have had a life largely devoid of contact with the medical profession. I know however that a large part of the time I spend in any sort of interaction with them is my racking my brain to remember when exactly I had the final vaccination for Hep B, and writing down one more time that I am not allergic to penicillin.

This information is relatively straighforward for me because my  medical history doesn't change much from year to year, and my  memory is serviceable enough to remember the odd new fact that arises. Things were much more difficult for some elderly relatives who had a range of medical interventions just at the time their memory was getting more unreliable. In one case a number of separate hospitals were involved, and, of course the GP. You will be unsurprised to hear that practically no information passed between these various branches of the same organisation, the magnificent NHS, peace be upon it.

My father in law had a file relating to treatment of his eyes that was the thickness of a telephone directory. His sight was not good. When I helped him attend outpatient clinics I saw a porter working full time bringing huge shopping trolleys, groaning under the weight of similar paper files, to the consultant. As someone who has worked with computers almost his whole life, I inwardly wept that the the NHS, in the 21st Century could rely on such Victorian technology to keep people healthy.

It has long been recognised that more use of IT should be employed in the NHS, but, like most large organisations, it has always taken the view that 'knowledge is power' and that it should share it only in extremis, and certainly not make it available to the actual patient. The resulting fiasco is well documented. Like many central government IT programmes it failed expensively and spectacularly in its most recently incarnation as "Connecting for Health"  

I was talking to someone today who had recently had an operation. She mentioned that when discussing the procedure with the anaesthetist she had been advised to have a local anaesthetic as 'we nearly lost you last time' (when she had undergone an operation under a general anaesthetic). This may sound reasonable until you realise that had this person had to have an operation in any other hospital than the one that had previously operated on her (possibly  with  any  other anaesthetist) her chance of dying would have been enormously  increased: because nobody had mentioned to her the problems encountered in her previous procedure.

This got me thinking, and confirmed what I had always thought: that it is not sufficient for patients simply to have a right to see their medical records, but that their medical records should by law be made available to them, automatically, via a simple web page, or portable digital record. Most people do not need to worry  excessively about privacy: a portable format medical record would be much more valuable to them than the knowledge that their records were safe from News of the World hacks.

The professions would oppose this, of course, for purely selfish reasons, and to preserve their monopoly position. Most patients would take the view that 'the doctor knows best' and might never access their records. But for many it would be a modest benefit, for some it could be a life saver. For the NHS it would represent a huge saving of money.

From a practical point of view it would be sensible to adopt one of the existing Electronic Medical Record formats. Many exist, but I suppose the Not Invented Here syndrome would induce our beloved NHS to invent another, incompatible one.


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Fraud and incentives

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One of the causes of the Global Financial Crisis was fraud. Lots of people lied about their income, the value of the property they were about to buy, and their liquid assets in order to get a loan. Although the ultimate creditors (quite possibly now the taxpayer) cared a lot about this, nobody in the chain otherwise did. Certainly the brokers, who were incentivised by fees were not remotely bothered that borrowers were lying. In fact they much preferred the 'self-certified' loans, because these tended to carry higher interest rates and much higher fees. 

The banks themselves didn't worry too much, because in many cases they could sell on the loans practically as soon as they hit their balance sheets. The whole system rewarded fraud, and sure enough fraud became endemic. The fault though is not the individuals: they just behaved exactly as an economist would expect them to behave. The fault is clearly the politicians who yielded to lobbying from organisations who wanted the fees to keep rolling: various bodies in the financial sector. The endless problems of 'mis-selling' financial products, most recently PPI, will continue indefinitely unless something very radical is done.

Banks regularly are affected by spectacular fraud conducted by insiders. The most celebrated case recently is that of Kwame Adoboli who managed to lose $2.3 bln for UBS by breaking the rules, but he's merely the latest in a long line. What is noticeable is that no matter how many compliance officers and complicated systems these banks use, the frauds continue to be conducted, and that whenever fraud is exposed it has caused a big loss for the bank. Somehow it seems likely that frauds that net employers big profits do not go to court.

The pressure on all parties to make money is the cause of this fraud, but somehow when designing remuneration schemes, this never seems to be taken into account. Senior executives, rewarded by when share prices go up, have a huge incentive to gear up, start buy-back schemes, issue special dividends. The result is that the system is gained: they win, but the shareholder loses. Nobody has both the power to change the rules of the game and the chance of gaining from the use of better rules. Maybe this is where the government can get involved, although it seems hard to see how this could withstand the opposition that this would generate from those who benefit from the current system.


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The UK retail sector accounts for about 10% of all jobs. It accounts for about 8% of GDP, at least double the size of the agricultural sector and only just behind manufacturing in terms of its importance.

But it is in severe trouble. In Stockport one in four shops is empty. Shops in shopping centres carefully designed by town planners with their superior ability to know the future. In the country as a whole, one in seven shops is empty, and a large number of the rest are occupied by extremely marginal traders, like charity shops, which depend on special tax breaks to keep open.

If you are reading this you probably haven't been to a shop, at least a physical one, in weeks. You wonder what on earth those 3 million shop assistants are doing. I certainly do. Certainly whenever I hear of another plan to 'regenerate' a town centre by p
English: Charity Shops - King Street

Image via Wikipedia

utting more retail capacity in it, I think that the developer and the councillors will have long gone before ordinary people finish paying the cost of this malinvestment.

Retailing is an industry in retreat. Regeneration of town centres would be much better achieved by converting some or all of the retail premises to living accommodation. Of course extremely low interest rates may disguise the true extent of the disaster that is retailing, but the time will come when these return to normal (unless the Bank of England fails to wean itself off the low rate drug that it is on).

So the key takeaway from these facts: short the retailers and commercial REITs.

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Facebook

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A: What's all this about the Facebook IPO then?

B: It's being floated, going to jump to being one of the most valuable companies on the US stockmarket overnight.

A: Does this mean that Mark Zuckerberg is going to sell all his shares and lose control then?

B: No, he's set up two classes of share capital to keep control.

A: Doesn't that mean that everyone will end up as a minority shareholder vulnerable to being oppressed by Mr Z and his cronies?

B: Oh, no, a charismatic guy like Mark would never do a thing like that. Look at stock markets in Asia. Minority shareholders are always treated with scrupulous fairness.

A: So, how come it's so expensive. Don't social media sites tend to come and go like flared trousers and padded shoulders? After all, it's not as though we've never had them before: remember MySpace, Bebo, Orkut, QQ, Faceparty, Friends Reunited. And LinkedIn, don't forget LinkedIn, the kind of 'Facebook for grownups'.

B: Oh, but FB is different. It's run by, err, hackers, and it's really difficult for competitors to break into this market because well, uh, it would take a long time for people to move their stuff from FB to anywhere else now.

A: I thought that Google was muscling in on FB's territory, with Circles and stuff,

B: Oh, Google can't really compete with FB. They, err, don't have the money, or the personal data of users, or competent programmers, or global reach, or lots of servers, or access to your email, or, ... oh well, maybe FB will share some of the revenue stream with Google,

A: So, for FB to be worth so many squillions, they must be making a ton of money right now. How do they do that exactly? I guess they have all sorts of clever tariffs and charges that heavy users hardly know they are paying for access to the site, right?

B: Err, they make their money from their display ads, you know those ads that tell you how to lose weight, or wrinkles on the right hand side of the page. 

A: What?? Display ads? Like Yahoo was focussed on back in 1993? I thought the idea was that with all the stuff FB knows about their users they can deliver laser-targetted advertising to them so that the ads will cease to be irritating and all be fascinating, alerting users to just what they want to buy now.

B: Err, maybe ......
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