1. China is opening up

    Published: Sun 22 January 2023
    Updated: Tue 24 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    China is back, baby

    China has been hurt by Covid. The response of the national government has been a catastrophe, and the capabilities of the healthcare sector in China have been shown to be extremely feeble, both the capability of developing vaccines, and the ability of the country to deliver …

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  2. Pessimism is pathological?

    Published: Sat 21 January 2023
    Updated: Tue 24 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Optimism is us

    Eric Blair (better known as George Orwell) said “Any life, when viewed from the inside, is simply a series of defeats.” An old friend of mine, somewhat given to pessimism, always used to argue that only people who were clinically depressed had a realistic view of the …

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  3. Keith Starmer Speaks

    Published: Fri 20 January 2023
    Updated: Fri 20 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2023-01-20

    Starmer

    While I was producing a meal this evening, I caught half the interview of Emily Maitlis and John Sopel with Keir Starmer. I try to avoid listening to what politicians have to say. They occasionally have ghost-written pieces in the paper, but these are mostly excruciating. Active politicians …

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  4. Double inversion

    Published: Thu 19 January 2023
    Updated: Fri 20 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2023-01-19

    Worth reading

    Matt Levine is always worth reading. Signing up to his newsletter is about the highest return investment you can make in the world of finance (the fact that it’s free helps with the ROI). He manages to make complicated ideas in finance funny and easy to …

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  5. One bad Apple

    Published: Wed 18 January 2023
    Updated: Thu 19 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-12-01

    Wrap

    Today was quite scary. There was a lot of economic news today, most of it bad. This included retail sales, industrial production, PPI (down) and capacity utilization (down). Bonds rallied, but particularly at the five-year maturity. Rather than the curve steepening across the full range of maturities, it …

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  6. Meritocracy

    Published: Sat 14 January 2023
    Updated: Mon 16 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Should we be ruled by the brightest and the best?

    Our masters are those who managed to climb the greasy pole the fastest. Their reward is their dominion over us. Life’s also-rans may not be happy about this state of affairs, but probably console themselves with the idea that …

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  7. Oil gets lively

    Published: Fri 13 January 2023
    Updated: Mon 16 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 13 Jan

    Oil

    Oil prices have been trending down for half a year. Given the number of times that ‘high energy prices’ have been used as an excuse for things getting more expensive, you may be surprised to read this, but it’s true!

    All the factors that made …

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  8. Equity review

    Published: Thu 12 January 2023
    Updated: Mon 16 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2023-01-12

    Equity markets and their headwinds

    This calendar year has started with a burst of gloom:

    • Rising interest rates, driven by central banks trying to fight labour shortages by making capital more expensive,

    • central banks promising to double down on their fight against inflation, in spite of the pain being …

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  9. Sources of capital

    Published: Wed 11 January 2023
    Updated: Tue 17 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2023-01-11

    My brush with private equity

    A very long time ago, I wanted to get funding for a software startup. This was in the 1980s. I was young and naive, and so was my business partner. The PC was a new thing, and very little software was available for it …

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  10. Has gold’s time come?

    Published: Tue 10 January 2023
    Updated: Tue 10 January 2023
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2023-01-10

    The barbarous relic at the gate

    All right-thinking economists dismiss gold as money. Keynes famously declared it a ‘barbarous relic’. But even after all these years, the yellow rock still gets investors and journalists excited (e.g. in today’s FT)

    Part of the appeal of gold is its …

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