“Nobody knows anything” is a quote from William Goldman, “Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” The …continue
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It looks as though globalization, and with it the massive boost to the world’s labour supply, has paused if not permanently ended. The war in Ukraine is likely to drive a wedge between the West and Russia, and the West and …continue
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The ECB announced that it would end QE and start to raise rates. The various policy rates have been pinned to the floor since 2016, but next month will start to rise, as inflation shows itself to be, errr, not transitory. This …continue
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You’ve heard me talk a lot about how inflation is going to persist, for a lot longer than Janet Yellen foresaw. The question is, how can a retail investor take advantage of this?
I’ve been reading some …continue
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Basically, today was a mild risk-on. Equities were up, bonds down, commodities up, crypto up, VIX down. There may be excitement next week when a lot of options (especially puts) expire. No major economic news. Saudi Arabia seems to have increased prices for crude for …continue
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This week’s Macro Compass talks about the ‘hidden dual mandate’ of the ECB. The hidden bit is the need to keep the Eurozone from breaking up. Alf argues that it’s going to be impossible to keep the PIIGS solvent and at …continue
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Harley Bassman is highly regarded. He’s very knowledgeable about mortgage-backed securities. He has written about the fact that MBS REITs might be a profitable (long) investment in the current rate environment. The basic idea is that they are priced as a bond with …continue
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