Other articles


  1. Late May update

    Published: Fri 29 May 2020
    By me

    In trading.

    Trying to keep delta neutral wrt SPX.

    Some exposure to commods via PAAS, VALE, KL, GLD but very little.

    Hanging onto Incredible Hulks trade, but yet to see much return (grrr, Kuppy!).

    Slight exposure to energy via RDXUSD.

    Really hanging on for markets to get rational.

    I’m desperate to …

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  2. Martin Gurri on the Revolt of the Public

    Published: Thu 28 May 2020
    By me

    In misc.

    I love long-form interviews, especially when driving or otherwise unable to read. I listened to The Econtalk Episode in which Russ Roberts talks to Martin Gurri about his 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public”. You can read the highlights here.

    The basic thesis is that Poltical Taylorism has had …

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  3. Kelly’s Criterion

    Published: Tue 26 May 2020
    By me

    In misc.

    Kelly was a smart guy who worked with the legendary Claude Shannon at Bell Labs. He worked out an optimal betting strategy for games of chance. This can be applied to investment, where an investment decision has a payoff probability distribution where a holding (e.g. of stock) will produce …

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  4. Reits are Wrongs

    Published: Tue 26 May 2020
    By me

    In misc.

    I’ve been very bearish about ‘purpose built student accommodation’ for a long time. The UK has been following the US in tertiary education, just as it always follows it in primary and secondary education.

    I have some experience of renting to students. It’s not easy, and it’s …

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  5. But who will pay all these wages?

    Published: Fri 22 May 2020
    By me

    In latest.

    Who will pay?

    We seem to be returning to the 30s. But this time populist governments are desperate to keep voters on board. So they have no option but to cushion unemployment. The big debate of the 30s was whether this would put off the evil day when the economy …

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  6. Immoveable objects

    Published: Fri 22 May 2020
    By me

    In misc.

    Bull and Bear, Immovable Object meets Irresistible Force. Which will win out?

    Charlie Bilello is one of the many great commentators who collate data and give analysis to us for free. He has collected together some recent data which shows just how enormous the C-19 disruption has been over the …

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  7. trading log, 22 May 2020

    Published: Fri 22 May 2020
    By me

    In trading.

    Not traded for a bit. Some small trades:

    • bought TLT put. Too scared to sell UB fut.
    • sold NVDA call. Made some cash from an expiring short call.
    • bought some TSLA CFD
    • bought some HCC. Want to be long some equity.
    • bought an HG fut, sold some calls, to hedge …
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  8. It’s different this time (we’re getting inflation)

    Published: Wed 20 May 2020
    By me

    In misc.

    Another serious commentator sees inflation clouds on the horizon

    Vincent Deulard is a very interesting commentator. Without the inimitable Kevin Muir & Patrick Ceresna, I would never have encountered this witty and thoughtful Frenchman.

    Deluard believes that it’s different this time. That the demographic challenges facing the Boomers mean that …

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