1. If a market doesn’t act right, don’t touch it.

    Published: Sun 05 December 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Sunday 5, December 2021

    Mr Hostetter’s Rules for Trading

    If you search for “A successful speculator’s approach to commodities trading” by Morris Markovitz, you’ll probably find a pdf of a scan of this book. The whole book is worth reading, but I thought I’d transcribe the …

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  2. Correlation is not causation

    Published: Sat 04 December 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Saturday 4, December 2021

    Krugman vs Friedman

    Milton Friedman was a formidable economist, and person. I have admired him for most of my adult life. But when it comes to the Fed causing the Great Recession, I think Friedman was wrong. The idea was that the Fed allowed the money …

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  3. Finding a catalyst

    Published: Fri 03 December 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 3, December 2021

    Docusign ($DOCU:NSQ)

    Docusign “puked” today. It was down 32% pre-market. Dr Patel joked about it:

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  4. Sun-lit uplands for Suncor?

    Published: Tue 30 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    30 Nov 2021

    Suncor ($SU:NYQ)

    This SA piece confirms my view on Suncor. It is profitable, with a foreward P/E of 11.3, it pays a healthy dividend (5.5%), which is well covered and has had recent strong growth. It claims a breakeven price of $35/barrel …

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  5. Bubbles are hard to spot

    Published: Mon 29 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    29 Nov

    Spotting bubbles

    This post recaps the guru investors who got it wrong in the mid nineties. Basically, they were warning about bubble valuations five years before the Dot Com crash. Being early is the same as being wrong. In the long run we are all right.

    The issue …

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  6. Oramed Pharma ($ORMD) — great medical innovation, or just great stock promotion?

    Published: Sun 28 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    28 Nov

    The Parallax View published a 9,933-word report on Oramed Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ORMP on), an oral drug delivery systems company focused on treating diabetes. Parallax highlighted excessive insider compensation including $3.2 million to the company CEO, Nadav Kidron, and his mother, who serves as Chief Scientific Officer …

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  7. Camping it up!

    Published: Sat 27 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    27 Nov

    Camping World

    Camping World Holdings is the leading supplier of recreational vehicles in the USA. It is highly geared and has some questionable management. It has a very low profit margin, because it has “a very high asset turnover.” A big component of the debt is related to …

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  8. Milkshake Theory Move

    Published: Fri 26 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    26 Nov 2021

    Dollar Strength

    One theory of currency prices says that in the long run the value of a currency is inversely proportional to the amount of currency in existence. The idea is that the price of a foreign currency moves with the general price level, which itself is …

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  9. Oil down but not yet out

    Published: Tue 23 November 2021
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    23 Nov 2021

    Oil

    Democratic governments have decided that their re-electability is being threatened by rising energy prices, so they have released reserves of oil in a coordinated move to beat down the price. The problem is that with the world consuming approx 100 million barrels of oil a day …

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