9. Now we have two problems

   Some people when confronted with a problem think “I know, I’ll use options.” Now they have two problems.

   (The above title is adapted from the Regular Expressions sub on reddit.)

   Well, we have some incredible numbers for unemployment. Any regression model trying to fit this charg is going to …

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10. Bonds may be leading us up the garden path

    Markets are hard to read

    Today’s FT (C&F): Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs says that event-driven bear markets are soon over, so don’t worry, chaps, everything will be fine from now on, especially for Big Tech. However, maybe governments will have no option but to start taxing …

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11. So why not load the bazooka with the kitchen sink and go nuclear?

    The Fed goes where other CBs fear to tread

    I stole the title of this post from Robin Wigglesworth’s “The Fed’s Vietnam moment” published today. He, in turn stole it from Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank (with acknowledgment). It argues that the Fed may be getting in too …

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12. How I set up this site

    This is a note for me, to remember how to create a new entry.

    I had to fiddle a bit with Pelican to make it work OK on Windows and to allow me to use a custom domain on github. You can see the full gory details at https://github …

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13. Stolen from Max Nova’s Review of Jim Paul’s Book

    Disclaimer

    I pinched all this from Max Nova’s Review. I plan to somehow use this as the basis of some articles.

    FOREWORD

    Trading, as far as I know, is the only endeavor in which the rank amateur has a 50/50 chance of being right. Why? Because there are …

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14. 15th April 2020

    15th April 2020

    OK, last week has been pretty awful. The Fed went all in on stimulus and there was a face-ripping rally of all risk assets. You lost a lot. Ugh. Lots of stops triggered. Yesterday was also a risk-on day, and you lost money, although you did sell …

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15. 17th April 2020

    Friday 17th April 2020

    OK, I’ve kinda gone delta-neutral on my long long-dated puts on TSLA, RUT and BA with shorter-dated short puts. This was a smart move. The market has been rocketing lately, for no obvious reason, as usual. At least I haven’t been damaged too badly …

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16. 1st April 2020

    1st April 2020

    Trades

    • (Late yesterday): NQ, GC both sold by stop
    • (Early this morning): ES & 3333 (China Evergrande) stopped (this and previous at a loss).

    SX7P option sold via limit (up $10K).

    • at desk this morning: sold 9 SX7P futures, to rebalance the hedge at a $3K loss,
    • 5am …

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17. 2020_april_20th

    20th April 2020

    Overview as of now (4:20pm): equities quiet, CL down 8%.

    Your trades:

    • trimmed TSLA to edge a big more -ve,
    • sold some calls vs short cash because … stonks!
    • pyramiding the Incredible Hulks trade. Not sure it wouldn’t be simpler just to short CL,
    • bought one …

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18. 2nd April 2020 \(Jerry’s birthday\)

    2nd April 2020 (Jerry’s birthday)

    Stops and limits

    OK, overnight, a few stops were triggered, with some modest downside. Your short in DJ600 went again. The good thing was that this has dropped your risk level a lot. Because of the insane volatility, this is a good thing.

    Morning …

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