1. UK housing market

    Published: Sun 24 July 2022
    Updated: Wed 27 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Sunday 24, July 2022

    For most people, the biggest spend they will ever make is on a house. It’s not surprising, then, that the biggest asset class on the planet is residential housing. Housing is the market, the one that all other markets are connected to. When house prices …continue

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  2. Oil sinks

    Published: Fri 22 July 2022
    Updated: Fri 22 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Friday 22, July 2022

    Hollow men

    Ben Hunt has a compelling message. It’s that unconventional monetary theory, practice in Japan, the US, and basically throughout the developed world, is destabilizing because it systematically increases inequality. He says it in a rather verbose style, which reduces his impact, in my …continue

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  3. Turning Japanese

    Published: Thu 21 July 2022
    Updated: Fri 22 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Thursday 21, July 2022

    Wrap

    The BoJ is not expected to react to core inflation in Japan exceeding 2% for the third month in a row. Biden has Covid, but nobody seems to be worried. Reports suggest that Russia and Ukraine will do some sort of deal to allow export …continue

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    There are comments.

  4. Monetary policy

    Published: Wed 20 July 2022
    Updated: Wed 20 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Wednesday 20, July 2022

    Inflation — long and variable lags

    The joys of being part of the Eurozone:

    The small countries in the EU which have yet to join the Euro are being hammered with inflation. Their central banks are, in some case, hiking rates hugely, but so far it isn’t working. Slovakia is the exception: it has …continue

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  5. It’s too hot

    Published: Tue 19 July 2022
    Updated: Wed 20 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Tuesday 19, July 2022

    Heat exhaustion

    In my office today, the temperature hit 36.4 deg. C. That’s too hot. It’s 34.8C now, which is still too hot.

    Wrap.

    Rampant risk-on. NDX up 3% on no news. In fact, BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed lowest equity …continue

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    There are comments.

  6. Consumers about to be crushed?

    Published: Mon 18 July 2022
    Updated: Mon 18 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Monday 18, July 2022

    Macro trends

    Crescat produces a first class monthly newsletter this month it identifies the following macro trends:

    • Real interest rates dropping
    • Consumer sentiment dropping
    • Dropping real consumer income
    • Corporate margin squeeze looming
    • Raw materials structurally higher
    • Labour costs rising steeply (at least in nominal terms)
    • High …
    • continue
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    There are comments.

  7. The nature of money

    Published: Sat 16 July 2022
    Updated: Sat 16 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Saturday 16, July 2022

    Money is a government liability

    In this article, Patrick McKenzie explains how bank liabilities come to function as money. The old idea about money as liabilities of a central bank, or a government treasury, is outdated. Many commentators point out that banks create enormously more money …continue

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  8. The real reason

    Published: Fri 15 July 2022
    Updated: Fri 15 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Friday 15, July 2022

    Tacit reasoning

    When I was at school, polytechnics were increasing their intake. Our headmaster, who had been an undergraduate at Oxford, encouraged us to think about applying to polytechnics. When a friend of mine, who was on track for getting a good set of results at …continue

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  9. Recession expectations become entrenched

    Published: Tue 12 July 2022
    Updated: Tue 12 July 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Tuesday 12, July 2022

    Wrap

    China is imploding, because President Xi has made terrible decisions about how to handle Covid-19, and cannot lose face by following the example of the rest of the world. This will crater demand from China, which had driven down more or less every last commodity …continue

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    There are comments.

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