No trading today (obviously). Ridiculous ramp by Donny yesterday evening, announcing huge stimulus package. The FED has restarted QE and has pumped unprecented quantities of cash into the banks via repo madness. There seems to be some evidence that the virus is fully under control in China. In Europe, the rate of growth is not as bad as anticipated, and the overall death rate is modest. Gold and gold miners have taken a beating. Bitcoin has been slammed. Amazingly, bonds, especially Bunds, have stumbled.

I am not sure what to do. I have a modest short position, but it may be that stonks will continue to rally. I strongly believe that they are still very much overvalued, but I now know that the market doesn’t care a damn about what I feel.

Reading the tape today, my ideas for the open are:

• short VNQ: REITs haven’t gone down enough, and interest rates could actually be on the rise,
• short Bunds
• keep an eye on the dollar. The Dollar Milkshake Theory is still holding, but rates in the US have gone to zero (or soon will),

which implies to me that some of the carry trades will reverse. There is an article on this in this week’s Economist,

but I found it hard to follow the arguement (or, at least, to draw clear trading implications from it),

• look at shorting a few auto manufacturers, which have bounced a lot at the close last week.