Friday 17th April 2020

OK, I’ve kinda gone delta-neutral on my long long-dated puts on TSLA, RUT and BA with shorter-dated short puts. This was a smart move. The market has been rocketing lately, for no obvious reason, as usual. At least I haven’t been damaged too badly.

My big mistake was going long three contracts June GC. Gold, although it’s doing well, was smashed. A hedging position, short puts, offset some of the damage, but it still accounts for my downside.

My “incredible hulks” strategy seems not to be holed below the waterline, yet. Nothing spectacular though, as oil has been rallying, with incessant boosterism from the orange buffoon (who is, naturally, enjoying record approval ratings).

Anyway, I bought one ESTX50, because “if you can’t beat them, join them”.

I sold one ZAR (ZAR, TRL, and other weak currencies are going to get smashed).

EMB looks a safe short according to SA. You shorted EMB a while ago, via CFD, but it has done nothing so far.

Oddly enough GILD is rocketing, as there a rumour that Remdesivir, an anti-viral, is effective against Covid-19. Exuberance ‘out of control’ on Gilead/COVID - Baird

Article by Karen Ward in the FT saying that inflation was breaking higher. 100% of the comment disagreed, but at some point it really is going to happen.

Great article about how even with early info it’s hard to make profits.

Kuppy is keen on NG. SD (Sandridge) is one way of getting exposure. As he says, he’s been very wrong in the past. It looks very illiquid. Not sure what’s wrong with a contract of NG. The thesis is simple. Oil production is going to shut, cutting off the supply which is a byproduct of oil. Demand is holding up. Prices will rise.

close

Trying to get delta-neutral. Sold some BA puts to compensate for those expiring. Closed GC short hedge posn. You had a calendar spread, but you were not convinced about it. Sold a few more hulks. This seems to be a working strategy. Sold some RUT to compensate for expiry, to keep neutral.

Basically, GC killed you today. Everything else was sort of OK, even though it was a massive risk on day.