Wrap

The fallout from yesterday’s CPI print is still being felt. The money supply is the only thing that matters, and the Fed is the only central bank that matters. After a 160 point move in SPX yesterday, there was a 100 point move in the other direction today …

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2022-10-13

Apology

I’ve been on holiday, and then I’ve been busy catching up. I will start writing something every evening pretty soon, but my Real Life &tm; is rather busy right now.

Wrap

It was an inflation day. The headline rate was 8.2%, 10bp above expectations, but nothing …

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2022-10-02

Broadridge Financial Solutions [[$BR]]:

Spruce Point Capital published on Broadridge Financial Solutions (NYSE: BR — $22.3 billion), a corporate services and financial technology company. Spruce Point called the company “a low value-added business process outsourcer with rising financial stress and dubious technology prowess.” Spruce Point highlighted website and disclosure …

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Images

Twitter

Trussonomics is deeply stupid. But there seems to be a lot of hyperventilating going on. No, it won't cause a global crisis — for God's sake, Britain is only 3.2% of world GDP. And while British markets are a mess, we're a long way from …

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2022-09-29

Wrap

All risk assets are down today, including longer-dated bonds. Even stocks that never go down, like $AAPL and $TSLA are affected. Supposedly, the UK’s government’s woes are the cause of some of this mayhem. It seems unlikely, somehow, that this wet and windy island can cause …

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28 Sept

It ain’t over ‘till the unemployment numbers go up

This post explains how commodity-price driven inflation must lead to wage inflation and that only when this is brought down by ‘mass’ unemployment will inflation generally be tamed. It’s a grim picture, but may be right.

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Crescat Strategy

Crescat Aug newsletter. This newsletter shows some charts from the 60’s 70’s, when inflation was high, and drove up unemployment and drove down equities. It also shows how cheap energy has become relative to almost any other sector, but particularly relative to consumer discretionary.

All you …

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2022-09-27

Twitter

Russia🇷🇺 is most likely the first and only country in the world where people flee not because someone invaded their country, but because they invaded another country. pic.twitter.com/TzKnoBldP7

— Mikhail Khodorkovsky (English) (@mbk_center) September 27, 2022

Wrap

A couple of Fed Presidents (Evans, Mester and Kashkari …

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2022-09-26

Causes of stock price falls

Wrap

Risk assets continue to struggle. The only equity markets which are up on the year are Turkey and Cyprus. The latter is a minnow, the former is up only because the denominator, the Turkish Lira, has been so weak. Sterling assets continue to …

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2022-09-21

FOMC day

Stocks took a hit because the FOMC announced another 75bp hike. Short term rates are now above 3% (I’m never sure what rate is more important, but they are at 3% and 3.25% according to Trading Economics). SPX was down 2%, but it was lower …

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