1. Is a trillion pounds a lot of money?

    Published: Thu 08 September 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-09-08

    Bank stress tests

    This paper from researchers at the Bank of England suggests that as of Q4 last year, the probability of an ‘extreme stress event’ was around 1.7%. Numbers like this have to have a spurious precision. The researchers looked at £9.4 trillion in assets on …

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  2. Housing considered harmful

    Published: Wed 07 September 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-09-07

    The housing market

    Desired saving. Distrust of securities markets. QE and zero interest rate policy driving down returns on money-like assets. Literal visibility of asset class. Obsessive coverage of house price indexes by mass media. High fees and offputting tone of financial advisors. High visibility and faded memory of …

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  3. Gas and the dollar

    Published: Tue 06 September 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-09-06

    What will Europe do with no Russian gas?

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  4. Labor Day

    Published: Mon 05 September 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-09-05

    Wrap

    US markets were (largely) shut today, so market reaction was muted. WTI futures were traded, although there was no volume beyond the nearby contract (as far as I can tell), and it went up quite a bit. Putin seems to have decided to turn off Nordstream 1 entirely …

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  5. Updating demand management

    Published: Thu 01 September 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-09-01

    Wrap

    A few story stocks made dramatic moves. The notable one was $NVDA, which was down 12% because the company (Nvidia) was told by the government to restrict sales to Russia and China.

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  6. Insurance

    Published: Wed 31 August 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    2022-08-31

    Wrap

    ADP showed an estimated 132K jobs created in Aug, well below the 270K in July. Job creation is definitely coming down, but I’m not convinced that it will drag us down into a recession. Obviously, the data is for the US, but it’s going to be …

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  7. More fear of the Fed

    Published: Fri 26 August 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Friday 26, August 2022

    Week Wrap

    This was a risk-off week. Commodities, especially natural gas, has continued to surge, in the US at least. Hard commodities have been flat, reflecting China weakness, but energy and softs have been strong. Equities are almost all down, although many are still up on …

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  8. Don’t look inside the sausage factory

    Published: Wed 24 August 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    The sausage machine

    Stephen Semler writes a substack exposing venality and hypocrisy in US Federal policitics. You can read his latest here I always regret reading this stuff. It sickens me to write about it and it’s not even my country, so I absolutely have no ability to change …

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  9. OPEC talks tough

    Published: Tue 23 August 2022
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In Markets.

    Oil price spikes

    From oilprice.com:

    Tuesday, August 23, 2022

    When many started doubting the necessity and viability of OPEC+, the oft-mooted Iranian nuclear deal seems to have given the oil group a new meaning and a new direction. Almost in unison, participant countries and respective top officials have started …

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