Sunday 26, June 2022

ABM Industries

We seem to have drifted into a stealth bear market. It’s hard to make money on the long side, as long as the bear is in control, but as the tide turns profits are (in principle) waiting to be taken. This post gives …

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Saturday 25, June 2022

Nobody knows nuffink

“Nobody knows anything” is a quote from William Goldman, “Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” The …

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Wednesday 15, June 2022

The worst of times?

It looks as though globalization, and with it the massive boost to the world’s labour supply, has paused if not permanently ended. The war in Ukraine is likely to drive a wedge between the West and Russia, and the West and …

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Friday 10, June 2022

Wrap

The ECB and the Fed are now falling into line and promising to slow down asset purchases and raise rates. In the case of the ECB this is for the first time in about a decade, and also to a level that is almost positive …

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Thursday 9, June 2022

The ECB changes tack

The ECB announced that it would end QE and start to raise rates. The various policy rates have been pinned to the floor since 2016, but next month will start to rise, as inflation shows itself to be, errr, not transitory. This …

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Wednesday 8, June 2022

Wrap

Bonds down, commodities up, stocks down, VIX up, crypto down. It’s a risk off day! Oil seems particularly affected: WTI up 2.7% to $122.5 a barrel. I’m reading Daniel Yergin’s The Prize about the history of the oil industry. I …

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Tuesday 7, June 2022

How to play the long-run inflation game

You’ve heard me talk a lot about how inflation is going to persist, for a lot longer than Janet Yellen foresaw. The question is, how can a retail investor take advantage of this?

I’ve been reading some …

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Monday 6, June 2022

Wrap

Basically, today was a mild risk-on. Equities were up, bonds down, commodities up, crypto up, VIX down. There may be excitement next week when a lot of options (especially puts) expire. No major economic news. Saudi Arabia seems to have increased prices for crude for …

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Sunday 5, June 2022

The European project

This week’s Macro Compass talks about the ‘hidden dual mandate’ of the ECB. The hidden bit is the need to keep the Eurozone from breaking up. Alf argues that it’s going to be impossible to keep the PIIGS solvent and at …

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Saturday 4, June 2022

Mortgage REITs

Harley Bassman is highly regarded. He’s very knowledgeable about mortgage-backed securities. He has written about the fact that MBS REITs might be a profitable (long) investment in the current rate environment. The basic idea is that they are priced as a bond with …

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