Thursday 24, March 2022

Norway, commodities

Norway supplies 7% of Europe’s oil and 16% of it’s gas. Read more at the Visual Capitalist. It seems to me that NOK.SKR has to be a buy, but what do I know? Brazil has to benefit from increasing commodity prices …

There are comments.

Wednesday 23, March 2022

Taylor Rule Revisited

One doesn’t hear much about the Taylor Rule these days. It’s a mechanical rule for determining what the correct level of the Fed Funds Rate should be to keep inflation under control. The definition is messy but the general idea is …

There are comments.

Tuesday 22, March 2022

Wrap

Oil is now at $111 a barrel, and nobody knows where it’s going. Clearly, the high prices will drive more production, and a lot of oil can be produced at less than $100. However, Russia is 10% of global supply, and it’s not …

There are comments.

Monday 21, March 2022

Bear Cave 109

I am a huge fan of Edwin Dorsey. He writes a weekly newsletter (free!) with stocks which may be worth looking at more closely, of which the management may have been involved in fraud. The price of these stocks have usually crashed before …

There are comments.

Saturday 19, March 2022

Market Huddle

Jimmy Jude on Market Huddle: ED futures are due to have a rally. Powell, Yellen &c. do not want to do anything that in any way increases the chances of a Trump victory next time, including damage to the Dems at the mid-terms.

There are comments.

Friday 18, March 2022

The future

Stanley Druckenmiller, possibly the best trader of all time, said something one time about a high proportion (40%) of his calls being wrong. The market is basically valuing stuff right, most of the time. Of course, trends go on too far and valuations become …

There are comments.

Thursday 17, March 2022

Inversion Alert

To my mind, on of the finest free resources on the web is Alex Manzara’s blog, Chartpoint. Today’s entry is all about how the Fed yesterday spooked markets into inverting the 5Y-10Y curve, and generally bending the curve down over out over …

There are comments.

Wed 16 March

Fed Decision Day!

The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate (which, I think, is also the interest rate on excess reserves) to 50bp. This was exactly what the market was expecting. The decision was well telegraphed by Powell and others, so no major reaction in the market …

There are comments.

Tuesday 15, March 2022

Globalization

The FT ran a piece yesterday saying that removing Russia from Most Favoured Nation status in the WTO was not a great idea. It’s here but it might be behind a paywall. Sorry.

The article makes (at least) two arguments. One is that Russia …

There are comments.

Monday 14, March 2022

Oil and Ukraine

China has been hit by many Omicron outbreaks. It’s lockdown strategy is failing, but the market is assuming that it will shut down its economy again, refusing to consider changing tactics. The war grinds on. Evidence seems to be mounting that the …

There are comments.