Tuesday 22, March 2022
Wrap
Oil is now at $111 a barrel, and nobody knows where it’s going. Clearly, the high prices will drive more production, and a lot of oil can be produced at less than $100. However, Russia is 10% of global supply, and it’s not clear that OPEC will fill the gap, at least in the short term.
Inflation is still a red-hot topic. Powell has said he will keep hiking, and with inflation unlikely to respond, it’s hard to see how this will play out. I can’t see him crashing the markets, but the 10Y yield is now at 2.13%, with a lot of curves inverted. The smart money is on a recession, sadly.
Energy Aspects (via Zerohedge) alleges that China is hoovering up cheap Russian oil.
One Week After Calling Them “Uninvestable”, JPMorgan $JPM Kolanovic Says Chinese Stocks Are A Buy…
— Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III) (@SpecialSitsNews) March 22, 2022
Can't make this up…”doesn't think tail risks materialize” a few days after going ballistic about tail risks…$KWEB $JD $PDD $BABA
China Is Buying Russian Crude at Steep Discounts: Energy Aspects
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 22, 2022
Europe is now feeling severe pain from the war in Ukraine:
China Is Buying Russian Crude at Steep Discounts: Energy Aspects
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 22, 2022
China’s manipulated stock market is hard to analyze using conventional approaches:
One Week After Calling Them “Uninvestable”, JPMorgan $JPM Kolanovic Says Chinese Stocks Are A Buy…
— Special Situations 🌐 Newsletter (Jay Singh III) (@SpecialSitsNews) March 22, 2022
Can't make this up…”doesn't think tail risks materialize” a few days after going ballistic about tail risks…$KWEB $JD $PDD $BABA
Not everyone buys the parallel with the 1940’s that Lyn Alden has pushed. The 1940’s saw very high, but very transitory inflation. We have much more debt now, and floating exchange rates.
I understand the urge to pull the 40s parallels: supply shortages, manufacturing disruptions, high savings, surging consumer goods demand….but for as much as it looks interesting, it doesn’t have 2 key elements. An energy/commodities shock coupled with very lagging CBs.
— Federal Transitory Cash Carry Casio (@INArteCarloDoss) March 22, 2022
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