This was a risk-on equity day. The major US indices surged (NDX up 3.15%). Most other stuff was quiet, although nat. gas continues to zoom up. FX and bonds subdued. Some very good results from $AAPL and $VISA were the drivers of the equity …
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For my money, Alex Manzara is the best commentator on fixed income, “period” (as the Americans say). Macro Alf is pretty good, and there are a lot which are worth reading, but Manzara always leaves me feeling smarter.
Manzara’s latest post hits the …
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Well, at the press conference after the meeting of the FOMC, Powell confirmed what we already knew: that rates were going up, or, in the carefully chosen language of the chairman, interest-rate hikes will “soon be appropriate.”
The markets never really seem to price their …
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It has been clear for quite a while now that we’ve been in an “everything rally.” With a few noteable exceptions, such as fossil fuel energy, gold, silver and some bricks and mortar retail stocks, everything seems expensive. The world is awash in many …
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We hear about Ukraine as a land bridge to run gas pipes through and a frontline between Russia and NATO. The reality is that it’s a desperately poor country, as a consequence of all manufacturing industry being cartelized by a handful of oligarchs who date …
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I don’t have time to write much. Basically this was another risk-off day:
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Interest rates are on the move! Eurodollar futures continue to trade lower. Bonds, US and EU are weaker. Commodities are generally up: oil has had a very strong run since before Christmas. This almost exactly matches the systematic move up in 10Y yields for Treasuries …
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Economics is an odd science. Sometimes ad hoc rationalizations seem to acquire the status of founding principles. One such principle is the idea that an inverted yield curve invariably signals a future recession. This sort of makes sense. An inverted yield curve signals that the market …
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