We have a problem, Houston

The Chinese have reacted to the closing of the Chinese consulate in Houston by expelling the Americans in the US consultate in Chengdu. This was not great for risk assets overnight. NG is on a tear: still going up.

Lies, damn lies, statistics and unemployment …

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Morning

Mildly risk-on. Dollar weaker. Lots of articles talking about negative interest rates (US), precious metals breaking higher (especially silver). Global equities generally higher, but Far East looks precarious. I understand the arguments that the Fed cannot let the long end of the curve get out of control, but I …

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Opening buzz

Risk off today: gold up, bonds up, equities down, VIX up. Dollar ($DX) up, especially against emerging market currencies.

Bailout money goes to shareholders and creditors of already insolvent company

Well, who would have guessed that might happen? Here are the gory details.

What I read today

In …

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Is the $TSLA stockprice a bubble?

Well, probably, but this has been true repeatedly in the past year or so. Nobody I follow predicts anything but $TSLA becoming $TSLAQ, but this is because I’m human and I like to follow people who confirm my priors.

In other news

Forex …

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All day

AGG is trading at a 60-day vol of 4.4%. Long calls, anyone?

. It’s not tumbling, but it’s on a trend. This implies yield curve steepening. One to keep watching, rather than one to act on right away, I think.

Wrap

Crazy risk on day today …

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Economic news

US mortgage arrears are spiking. Not really a surprise, but Wolf gives the details. Headlines can be misleading, as mortgages in forebearance are not counted.

Silver seems to be breaking out. I don’t really know why, but it seems a thing. I somehow feel it’s linked …

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Markets since Wed

I was away the last few days. I didn’t make any notes, but the market doesn’t seem to have done much. There are more hopes of a vaccine. $MRNA is doing well, but there seem to be multiple companies which are close.

$NFLX crashed on …

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Morning

After the puke yesterday, markets are fairly muted. Equities are down ~1% in Europe. The $ES_F is actually up 40bp. Commods are generally down, incl. copper & gold. The 10year note has barely budged. It’s almost as if the Fed spending $4 trillion bonds has hampered price discovery for …

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Morning

Risk on (as usual). Bonds almost flat. Commods up generally, apart from the crude complex. Copper jumps because of some trouble in Chile. Equities up, vaccine rumours. Dollar flat. It’s Monday. Nothing will be clear until the US opens.

Wrap

Huge puke in the main equity indexes late …

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That was the week that was

The Chinese authorities seem determined to distract their citizens from the Hong Kong security law clampdown by juicing their stockmarket. The Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext indexes both went up over 7% (these are roughly the equivalent of the S&P 500 and the …

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