Markets today

Very slightly risk on. Dollar down a tiny amount, after a strong rally over the last few days. Commodities generally up, incl. metals and the oil complex, although softs down. Yields down a tad. Nothing dramatic. The 10-2 curve continues to flatten. Equities up a bit.

News: Tiktok …

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The markets today

The general tone seems to be risk on: steeping yield curve, miners down, gold flat, equities up. No very dramatic moves, although SPX is very close to breaching its high for the year, which was (surely) its all time high. Even European bank stocks are rallying, in …

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I can’t come close to Doug Noland’s CBB depth of coverage of markets.

Credit Bubble Bulletin Summary

I urge you to sign up to this newsletter/blog. It’s free and wonderful. creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com. It’s worth the price of a Bloomberg.

For the Week:

The S …

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Morning thoughts

It’s oppressively hot in the UK: not something I often say. The main driver of all price moves today is the dollar, which continues to sag. DX is down 0.46%, which is pushing all other prices up, at least in commodities. Equities are getting a boost …

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Morning thoughts

TL;DR: none. DXY short looks a bit over extended. DX future seems to be going up today. Probably a reversal, but I can understand the bull thesis. As DX rises, commodity prices fall, in unison. This seems to have happened today, including precious metals. This post from …

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Morning notes

Gold, silver, copper all flat. Lumber futures (LB) are having a terrific run up. I think this is definitely an inflation signal. Faint stirrings of a yield curve steepening in Treasuries (I live in hope!). The downtrend in China equities looking increasingly established. I’ve been bearish about …

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Close Summary

I was too busy to pay much attention to markets today. There were no dramatic moves. US stocks a bit soggy at the close. The VIX was up a bit, at 25.75 (the future). Twitter saying that the Plunge Protection Team had been deployed. Various news about …

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Markets as good as gold (and silver)

The Credit Writedowns newsletter is good, but I am just too stingy to pay to see behind the paywall. This article is a rare one that can be seen by everyone. It’s not amazing, but it’s pretty clear about predicting a …

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Recap

The Kelly Criterion tells you how much of your capital you should risk on a single bet, e.g. on a horse in a race. Kelly, in his original paper, contrived a rather odd situation where you actually have an “edge,” i.e. the expected payoff of your bet …

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I am not on holiday, but I wanted a weekend off.

If you want to know what’s been happening, I recommend the Credit Bubble Bulletin’s weekly roundup. It suggests that the biggest news is a continuing deterioration in the relationship between the US and China. I think that …

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