1. Wrap for week-ending 7 June 2020

    Summary

    You kept your portfolio pretty much delta neutral, and you proved that this squelched all the risk, and all the return too.

    Gradually, as it became apparent that investors perceive recent changes as signalling that the pandemic is coming to an end, you took off the risk-off hedges. You …

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  2. Buy when protestors are running in the streets

    The George Floyd riots continued over the weekend but made virtually no difference to the US markets. US stock averages are a bit muted, vs ROW. Transports & SPX are flat as of now (16:06 2020-06-01). Other markets did somewhat better, especially Latam.

    Generally, everything is risk on. TLT, which …

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  3. May Wrapup

    Published: Sun 31 May 2020
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In markets.

    Risk On/Risk Off behaviour still seems to dominate. The former still seems to be in the ascendance. I felt like shorting a few of the more obvious fraudulent enterprises, but they are just the ones the rocket up at any hint of a recovery. It really doesn’t seem …

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  4. Late May update

    Published: Fri 29 May 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Trying to keep delta neutral wrt SPX.

    Some exposure to commods via PAAS, VALE, KL, GLD but very little.

    Hanging onto Incredible Hulks trade, but yet to see much return (grrr, Kuppy!).

    Slight exposure to energy via RDXUSD.

    Really hanging on for markets to get rational.

    I’m desperate to …

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  5. Martin Gurri on the Revolt of the Public

    Published: Thu 28 May 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In misc.

    I love long-form interviews, especially when driving or otherwise unable to read. I listened to The Econtalk Episode in which Russ Roberts talks to Martin Gurri about his 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public”. You can read the highlights here.

    The basic thesis is that Poltical Taylorism has had …

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  6. Kelly’s Criterion

    Published: Tue 26 May 2020
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In markets.

    tags: maths

    Kelly was a smart guy who worked with the legendary Claude Shannon at Bell Labs. He worked out an optimal betting strategy for games of chance. This can be applied to investment, where an investment decision has a payoff probability distribution where a holding (e.g. of stock) will produce …

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  7. Reits are Wrongs

    Published: Tue 26 May 2020
    Updated: Sun 01 January 2023
    By steve

    In markets.

    I’ve been very bearish about ‘purpose built student accommodation’ for a long time. The UK has been following the US in tertiary education, just as it always follows it in primary and secondary education.

    I have some experience of renting to students. It’s not easy, and it’s …

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  8. trading log, 22 May 2020

    Published: Fri 22 May 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Not traded for a bit. Some small trades:

    • bought TLT put. Too scared to sell UB fut.
    • sold NVDA call. Made some cash from an expiring short call.
    • bought some TSLA CFD
    • bought some HCC. Want to be long some equity.
    • bought an HG fut, sold some calls, to hedge …
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  9. It’s different this time (we’re getting inflation)

    Another serious commentator sees inflation clouds on the horizon

    Vincent Deulard is a very interesting commentator. Without the inimitable Kevin Muir & Patrick Ceresna, I would never have encountered this witty and thoughtful Frenchman.

    Deluard believes that it’s different this time. That the demographic challenges facing the Boomers mean that …

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