Who will be the next POTUS?

It’s morning in the UK, and it’s too close to call. Biden has 220 EC votes, Trump 213. Biden has done much less well than expected, and could still lose. It still seems hard to believe that the Dems could put up such a weak candidate. Choosing the candidate was a balancing act. Biden was always going to be able to raise the most money, and comfortably outspent Trump. But it seems that US voters are not so easily persuaded by TV advertising. Good for them.

It looks as though the Senate will remain R and Congress D, which will mean that radical bills from either side will be harder to pass.

As of when I finished, the race was still undecided. Of course, a race between a pair of geriatrics was never going to be that fast.

Wrap

Risk on. Not sure what this is discounting.

• miners down,
• bubble stocks ($AMZN etc) up,
• credit up,
• fraud stocks up (ex. $OSTK, $BA, $SEDG, $W),
• bonds practically flat,
• gold up,
• crude oil about flat.

$TD was up about 10%! $LYFT and $UBER leapt on CA passing “proposition 22” which allows Uber drivers to be classified as contractors, not employees. ADP estimated an indicative jobs number of 365K for October. This is half of September’s, but is still good compared to equilibrium.

Chart for the day

Nobody (in these days of floating exchange rates) worries about the current account (or ‘balance of payments’). That certainly doesn’t mean that the USA is exporting more than it imports.