2022-09-06

What will Europe do with no Russian gas?

We're about to experience a sovereign debt crisis caused by the Europe energy crisis, all a capstone on the 100 year fiat expirement.

Here's how I think the next 6-8 months go down: pic.twitter.com/vxCkB2WSR4

— fejau (@fejau_inc …

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2022-09-05

Wrap

US markets were (largely) shut today, so market reaction was muted. WTI futures were traded, although there was no volume beyond the nearby contract (as far as I can tell), and it went up quite a bit. Putin seems to have decided to turn off Nordstream 1 entirely …

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2022-09-01

Wrap

A few story stocks made dramatic moves. The notable one was $NVDA, which was down 12% because the company (Nvidia) was told by the government to restrict sales to Russia and China.

Update: $NVDA is now down 12%

Part of being a world class trader is knowing when …

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2022-08-31

Wrap

ADP showed an estimated 132K jobs created in Aug, well below the 270K in July. Job creation is definitely coming down, but I’m not convinced that it will drag us down into a recession. Obviously, the data is for the US, but it’s going to be …

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Visa and Mastercard

I love to read Matt Stoller. His articles tend to be a bit depressing, but they draw attention to some egregiously concentrated markets. He has just written about the credit card industry. I am in the extremely fortunate position of never having used any of my credit …

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Friday 26, August 2022

Week Wrap

This was a risk-off week. Commodities, especially natural gas, has continued to surge, in the US at least. Hard commodities have been flat, reflecting China weakness, but energy and softs have been strong. Equities are almost all down, although many are still up on …

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The sausage machine

Stephen Semler writes a substack exposing venality and hypocrisy in US Federal policitics. You can read his latest here I always regret reading this stuff. It sickens me to write about it and it’s not even my country, so I absolutely have no ability to change …

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Oil price spikes

From oilprice.com:

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

When many started doubting the necessity and viability of OPEC+, the oft-mooted Iranian nuclear deal seems to have given the oil group a new meaning and a new direction. Almost in unison, participant countries and respective top officials have started …

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August 22nd

Wrap

The market is skittish today. The reason that Briefing.com made up is that people are worried that J Powell will go out of his way to shoot down the “Peak Fed” narrative. Seriously? The market is down because of something the chairman of the Fed just …

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Everyone is at the beach

Wrap

The markets seemed to sleep today. Generally, the tone was bullish/risk-on: bonds sagged almost across the board, presumably indicating that there is a consensus that inflation is coming down. The odd exception was crypto, which sagged quite badly. I heard a theory on …

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