GDP was a big miss, but FB earnings were a big beat, so the indexes responded positively. The dollar continued to rise, as did energy and food. Tesla and Alibaba were exceptions, but most US-listed stocks rose. Crypto joined the party, with a 1 …
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The market really doesn’t see inflation yet. This
Oil is yesterday’s fuel. Nobody wants to use it, and nobody wants to be in the business of drilling for it. Everyone wants to drive around in a solar-powered car. But this is …
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I have recently read Keynes’ magnum opus, the General Theory. In it he repeatedly mentions the importance of taking action to
I, like Hunt, am not a believer in the Phillips Curve, and I think this would be far better than trying to find infrastructure projects …
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Lacy Hunt, the doyen of commentators on the bond market, and chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management
has spoken. His bulletin is titled “Disaster.”
Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most people on the planet have been alive, but now …
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The Conservative Party’s signature policy is “Levelling Up”. It is baffling, to me. It seems to have been originated by Justine Greening, who seemed to think it was equivalent to increasing social mobility. As someone who has achieved a measure of social mobility I wondered …
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There was a fairly strong risk-off end to the week. Bonds were weak, but otherwise the predictable moves occurred: dollar up, equities down, commodities down. I don’t talk about crypto much, because, well, I don’t really understand it from a supply and demand …
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Writing software is slow and frustrating. Even outstanding programmers, who may be an order of magnitude faster than mere mortals, take time to create anything big. ETH (Ethereum) is a crypto currency, but with an interface to allow programmers to build apps on …
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Tesla is the big story of the day. Elmer Spud writes about it. In my bones I know it’s a Ponzi, but it’s just too damn volatile to short.
This is an amusing post about Ackman and Netflix. Ackman has become an object of …
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A lot of macroeconomic theory is about whether we are above or below full employment. If we are above, the appropriate policy response is to tighten. If we are below, the correct response is to loosen. A a lot of …
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— 10-K …
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, we'll analyze the “Devil's Card Game”.
This is a super useful thought exercise. It can teach us several key concepts in economics, probability, betting, hedging, investor/market psychology, etc. pic.twitter.com/2VHx4iVkLk
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