Well, at the press conference after the meeting of the FOMC, Powell confirmed what we already knew: that rates were going up, or, in the carefully chosen language of the chairman, interest-rate hikes will “soon be appropriate.”
The markets never really seem to price their …
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It has been clear for quite a while now that we’ve been in an “everything rally.” With a few noteable exceptions, such as fossil fuel energy, gold, silver and some bricks and mortar retail stocks, everything seems expensive. The world is awash in many …
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We hear about Ukraine as a land bridge to run gas pipes through and a frontline between Russia and NATO. The reality is that it’s a desperately poor country, as a consequence of all manufacturing industry being cartelized by a handful of oligarchs who date …
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I don’t have time to write much. Basically this was another risk-off day:
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Interest rates are on the move! Eurodollar futures continue to trade lower. Bonds, US and EU are weaker. Commodities are generally up: oil has had a very strong run since before Christmas. This almost exactly matches the systematic move up in 10Y yields for Treasuries …
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Economics is an odd science. Sometimes ad hoc rationalizations seem to acquire the status of founding principles. One such principle is the idea that an inverted yield curve invariably signals a future recession. This sort of makes sense. An inverted yield curve signals that the market …
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This report is very scary. It points out that global debt now amounts to 3.5 times global GDP. This is an insane amount of debt, in a world which has aready seen ‘peak child’ and in which productivity growth has almost ground to a halt.
Japan, as always, is …
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