Wrap

The Delta Variant seems to be really getting to the US Americans. Worries over it resulted (maybe) in a pullback in oil and a retreat for the dollar. The stimulus is yesterday’s news. Stock markets globally hit more all time highs. I assume this is all tied up to the confidence collapse pushing out the expected start of tapering. It still seems odd when bad news for the economy is brilliant news for the stock market, but investors have developed a Pavlovian response to anything which might keep the Fed from tightening. Oil and natural gas were weaker. It’s very rare to see the two move in tandem. Apart from gold, which has a good recent run, most commodities were up, presumably helped by a weaker dollar. Oats are at their highest price for seven years.

European equities seem to have finally escaped the doldrums. Even the FTSE100 was positive.

The main international news at the moment is the implosion in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US (and Brit) troops. I am no international strategist, but it seems obvious to me that once the US left, we’d see a re-run of the fall of Saigon. So much money, maybe $2T, spent. I hope the shareholders of US defence contractors were suitably grateful to the policians in charge of these policies.

LOBY ETF

With western governments spending maybe 50% of GDP, getting those taxpayers to pad out your profits is good business.

This ETF seeks to profit from just that: https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://s3.amazonaws.com/samsresearchfiles/SAM+POP.pdf