It’s a holiday in the US

Some markets are closed. It’s best not to trade on such a day. The tone seems to be moderately risk-on, but we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for something definite. The only notable thing that’s come onto my radar is the spike up in the Turkish Lira. It seems likely to reverse, but central banks talk to one another and can squeeze a bear market ruthlessly if the decide that they want to. Emerging markets are generally having a great time because everyone is convinced that an effective vaccine is around the corner.

Today appears to be a retrace. Gold is still weak, but the growth stocks are now going up again. There is some cynicism about the vaccine, not least because the CEO of Pfizer unloaded a large chunk of his stock a very short time after the announcement, and more or less at the point of maximum profit. I guess the actual announcement was not inside information, but if there any reasons that the trial might be suspect which are known to him these, surely, would be.

Wrap

Basically a huge rotation back into the “defensive” FAANG mega-caps with a collapse in value stocks generally. Most global equity markets up, not much action in currencies. Treasuries shut for Veterans’ Day. Commodities were mixed, with most food down (except live cattle), Most energy commodities up, with a couple of fractions down, gold approx. flat.

Economics focus

Leaving aside the normal caveats about interpreting unemployment rates, it seems quite clear that the US has a much more flexible labour market than the UK. This is going to cause some pain in the UK in the months and years ahead.

source: tradingeconomics.com