2 April
Stanley Druckenmiller is a legendary trader, with a record which is a lot better than Warren Buffett’s, in terms of annual consistency. He looks at economics, industry characteristics, accounts, market liquidity and charts. Interestingly, he doesn’t believe that technical analysis is voodoo. He particularly believes in taking concentrated bets, but with a willingness to flip positions very rapidly.
The classic momentum strategy of letting winners run and realizing early losses is the strategy of Jerry Parker. He was interviewed on this week’s Market Huddle. His approach is to have a lot of (dilute?) positions, in many markets, and apply the mechanical rules of trend following “and nothing else” religiously. This has done well for him. Druckenmiller’s technique has done well for him. Either they could have both got lucky, or there could be more than one route to success when managing investments.
China
HK is screwed. Many companies cannot produced auditable accounts. Shanghai is in lockdown. US bonds yield more than RMB ones. Evergrande and co. are on the point of bankruptcy. The government will have to spend an absolute fortune to stop the economy cratering. I cannot see the RMB going up in this environment. I get it that the RMB has been held down by the authorities for a long time to maximize exports, but now China has a fairly balanced current account (or did). If China
US Politics getting polarized now
I don’t know who this guy is, but he’s got 125K followers:
As it stands: Hunter’s laptop is real, the Biden family sells access to the President, Obama knew Hillary invented Russian collusion to distract from her emails, they did spy on Trump, and Fauci likely funded the creation of Covid-19. Welcome to your government.
— Rob Schmitt (@SchmittNYC) April 1, 2022
Foreshadowing Recession
Oil and higher nominal interest rates are not a good combination. Both
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