The close of the day
Wrap
Odd day. Housing starts disappointing, although recent data has been very noisy. Explanations vary from shortage of labour to shortage of lumber. Weather is always a confounding factor. Not obviously risk on or risk off:
- Ponzi sector up, $ARKK up 1.43%,
- $DXY weaker, 89.7, down 0.4%,
- broad US indices all down, even NDX,
- most vol indexes up, VIX futures up 1.4, i.e. 7% (caveat: percent of a percent),
- gold up, modestly,
- commodities mixed, crude down 1.3%,
- most bonds fairly flat, 10Y flat at 1.64%,
No obvious direction. My view is that housing starts will be seen as an outlier, down to specific problems affecting the housebuilding industry, with general economic activity continuing to grow strongly, creating a headwind for the dollar and yields.
- ZeroHedge got its account unsuspended, briefly,
- We are down to the false positive rate of infection in the UK now. Although amateur singing in groups is still forbidden, and extensive testing and quarantining of travellers is mandated,
- Policing political donations is harder than it sounds.
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- Breaking news: fiat USD is a scam.
ZH lookback
I miss ZH. Their wrap is better than mine. Read it here.
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