Today’s random thoughts

• Paul Singer of Elliott Management has warned that hyperinflation is around the corner. Clearly, it’s not all about supply bottlenecks, but CB’s don’t like to take the blame.
• Everyone hates copper, uranium, gold, silver. Maybe it’s time to go long some producers …

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FOMC day

The long-expected hike of 75bp arrived. From Newsquawk:

Stocks and Treasuries were lower while the dollar was bid with markets continuing to react to Wednesday’s hawkish press conference from Fed Chair Powell. Aside from Powell, we saw the BoE and Norges bank rate decisions where the former …

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2022-11-01

Has the time come for corporate debt to have its time in the sun?

SOM Macro Strategies argues in its latest newsletter that higer rates will benefit corporate credit. The idea seems to be that interest cost is fully allowable, and that as CBs pause the current tightening cycle …

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Scary Stuff

China is a scary place Insanely, investment in real estate in China is running at over 18% of GDP. Much of it is financed by banks, which are behemoths, but running on tiny sliver of equity. The slightest pause in the price of real estate would make 2008 …

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2022-10-29

Doomberg on crypto mixers

1/ It was only months ago that a leader of a G7 democracy granted himself temporary dictatorial powers, retroactively made protesting against his policies illegal, froze the bank accounts of dissidents with no due process, and jailed organizers of an opposition movement.

— Doomberg (@DoombergT) October …

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2022-10-28

Twitter

Elon Musk didn’t pull out. He now has a new baby, Twitter, which is de-listed and privately held. I love the service, and I am utterly dismayed by the idea of it being controlled by a criminal mastermind, but I guess there are synergies in being a …

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2022-10-26

5-30 Steepener

Lending money to someone for thirty years is a lot riskier than lending to them for one year, or even for five years. The market’s price of risk is an interest rate premium. Lending to me is a lot riskier than lending to HM Treasury, so …

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2022-10-25

Rishi Sunak, come on down!

Today, or maybe yesterday, Rishi Sunak became the latest UK PM. He’s incredibly smart, thin, brown, rich and short. He has not been battle-hardened in the ways of Westminster, and plenty on his own side, not to mention the other, would be delighted …

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2022-10-20

Yields were repressed in the 50s, to pay for WWII. They skyrocketed in the 70s/80s before the very harsh medicine of Paul Volker was used to bring yields down control. Budget deficits are huge now, compared to then, as a proportion of GDP. With many countries having debt …

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2022-10-19

Kuppy on Liz Truss and ‘Project Zimbabwe’

@Kuppy bangs on about ‘Project Zimbabwe:’ the plan to turn the USA into an emerging market by debasing its currency (and generally undermining the institutions which support capitalism there). He writes about the UK, and how a few mis-steps by our glorious …

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