2022-09-26

Causes of stock price falls

Wrap

Risk assets continue to struggle. The only equity markets which are up on the year are Turkey and Cyprus. The latter is a minnow, the former is up only because the denominator, the Turkish Lira, has been so weak. Sterling assets continue to …

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2022-09-21

FOMC day

Stocks took a hit because the FOMC announced another 75bp hike. Short term rates are now above 3% (I’m never sure what rate is more important, but they are at 3% and 3.25% according to Trading Economics). SPX was down 2%, but it was lower …

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2022-09-08

Bank stress tests

This paper from researchers at the Bank of England suggests that as of Q4 last year, the probability of an ‘extreme stress event’ was around 1.7%. Numbers like this have to have a spurious precision. The researchers looked at £9.4 trillion in assets on …

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2022-09-07

The housing market

Desired saving. Distrust of securities markets. QE and zero interest rate policy driving down returns on money-like assets. Literal visibility of asset class. Obsessive coverage of house price indexes by mass media. High fees and offputting tone of financial advisors. High visibility and faded memory of …

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2022-09-06

What will Europe do with no Russian gas?

We're about to experience a sovereign debt crisis caused by the Europe energy crisis, all a capstone on the 100 year fiat expirement.

Here's how I think the next 6-8 months go down: pic.twitter.com/vxCkB2WSR4

— fejau (@fejau_inc …

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2022-09-05

Wrap

US markets were (largely) shut today, so market reaction was muted. WTI futures were traded, although there was no volume beyond the nearby contract (as far as I can tell), and it went up quite a bit. Putin seems to have decided to turn off Nordstream 1 entirely …

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2022-09-01

Wrap

A few story stocks made dramatic moves. The notable one was $NVDA, which was down 12% because the company (Nvidia) was told by the government to restrict sales to Russia and China.

Update: $NVDA is now down 12%

Part of being a world class trader is knowing when …

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2022-08-31

Wrap

ADP showed an estimated 132K jobs created in Aug, well below the 270K in July. Job creation is definitely coming down, but I’m not convinced that it will drag us down into a recession. Obviously, the data is for the US, but it’s going to be …

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Visa and Mastercard

I love to read Matt Stoller. His articles tend to be a bit depressing, but they draw attention to some egregiously concentrated markets. He has just written about the credit card industry. I am in the extremely fortunate position of never having used any of my credit …

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Friday 26, August 2022

Week Wrap

This was a risk-off week. Commodities, especially natural gas, has continued to surge, in the US at least. Hard commodities have been flat, reflecting China weakness, but energy and softs have been strong. Equities are almost all down, although many are still up on …

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