Tuesday 28, June 2022

Inflation and commodities

Kuppy talks about ‘Project Zimbabwe,’ by which he means the incontinent money printing of central banks in response to the pandemic, wobbles in the polls, the market getting twitchy … well, more or less anything that might make politicians look bad. The logical response …

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Monday 27, June 2022

Crunch!

Equity markets have fallen a long way, but they are still above trend. As an inveterate bear, I think we have further to go, but I can see why a lot of people are saying that we’ve turned the corner.

Inflation is running at …

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Sunday 26, June 2022

ABM Industries

We seem to have drifted into a stealth bear market. It’s hard to make money on the long side, as long as the bear is in control, but as the tide turns profits are (in principle) waiting to be taken. This post gives …

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Saturday 25, June 2022

Nobody knows nuffink

“Nobody knows anything” is a quote from William Goldman, “Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.” The …

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Wednesday 15, June 2022

The worst of times?

It looks as though globalization, and with it the massive boost to the world’s labour supply, has paused if not permanently ended. The war in Ukraine is likely to drive a wedge between the West and Russia, and the West and …

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Friday 10, June 2022

Wrap

The ECB and the Fed are now falling into line and promising to slow down asset purchases and raise rates. In the case of the ECB this is for the first time in about a decade, and also to a level that is almost positive …

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Thursday 9, June 2022

The ECB changes tack

The ECB announced that it would end QE and start to raise rates. The various policy rates have been pinned to the floor since 2016, but next month will start to rise, as inflation shows itself to be, errr, not transitory. This …

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Wednesday 8, June 2022

Wrap

Bonds down, commodities up, stocks down, VIX up, crypto down. It’s a risk off day! Oil seems particularly affected: WTI up 2.7% to $122.5 a barrel. I’m reading Daniel Yergin’s The Prize about the history of the oil industry. I …

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Tuesday 7, June 2022

How to play the long-run inflation game

You’ve heard me talk a lot about how inflation is going to persist, for a lot longer than Janet Yellen foresaw. The question is, how can a retail investor take advantage of this?

I’ve been reading some …

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Monday 6, June 2022

Wrap

Basically, today was a mild risk-on. Equities were up, bonds down, commodities up, crypto up, VIX down. There may be excitement next week when a lot of options (especially puts) expire. No major economic news. Saudi Arabia seems to have increased prices for crude for …

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