Basically, the Fed bumped rates by 50bp, entirely as expected. The rumours on Twitter of a 75bp hike proved unfounded, but had the desired effect of causing the equity market to stage a relief rally, SPX up 2.36%.
Bonds were less impressed, with short …
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Generally, equities were up, modestly, bonds were flat (10Y yield precisely so, safely back under 3%), FX pretty quiet, DXY falling back from 103. Most big stocks seem to be up, including Tesla, XOM and JPM.
The bond bulls, such as @macroalf, and Andreas Steno-Larsen …
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GDP was a big miss, but FB earnings were a big beat, so the indexes responded positively. The dollar continued to rise, as did energy and food. Tesla and Alibaba were exceptions, but most US-listed stocks rose. Crypto joined the party, with a 1 …
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The market really doesn’t see inflation yet. This
Oil is yesterday’s fuel. Nobody wants to use it, and nobody wants to be in the business of drilling for it. Everyone wants to drive around in a solar-powered car. But this is …
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I have recently read Keynes’ magnum opus, the General Theory. In it he repeatedly mentions the importance of taking action to
I, like Hunt, am not a believer in the Phillips Curve, and I think this would be far better than trying to find infrastructure projects …
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Lacy Hunt, the doyen of commentators on the bond market, and chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management
has spoken. His bulletin is titled “Disaster.”
Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most people on the planet have been alive, but now …
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The Conservative Party’s signature policy is “Levelling Up”. It is baffling, to me. It seems to have been originated by Justine Greening, who seemed to think it was equivalent to increasing social mobility. As someone who has achieved a measure of social mobility I wondered …
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There was a fairly strong risk-off end to the week. Bonds were weak, but otherwise the predictable moves occurred: dollar up, equities down, commodities down. I don’t talk about crypto much, because, well, I don’t really understand it from a supply and demand …
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