Fraud is a buy

There are plenty of companies that make money fraudulently. Most of these companies will not be around in twenty years. But this doesn’t mean to say that anyone can make money shorting them. I’m not saying that Slack was a fraud, but it was …

There are comments.

Principled Perspectives

I don’t believe that just because someone is a billionaire, that he or she has anything particularly worthwhile to say on politics, or art, or science or really anything outside his direct experience. Even that may be the result of luck, or be more down to luck …

There are comments.

Inflation worry watch

Bloomberg is in on the act. This argues that because the pandemic pushed down the price level this year, as we normalize the readings are going to look bad next year, even if the real price level isn’t much changed from where it was expected to …

There are comments.

Britains Green New Deal

Jonathan Ford rightly rubbishes the proposals from the government to create jobs. The argument is well rehearsed. The fallacy is to assume that all jobs are equally productive. They are not. The sole purpose of economic activity is to consume, and the market is the perfect …

There are comments.

Do we really have robust jobs growth?

This questions the strength of the recovery in jobs in the UK.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Oil

Demand is weak in the west, but strong in Asia. Shale is (surely?) not coming back. Libya and Iran may start selling. Who knows what will happen …

There are comments.

Wrap

Today was a risk on day:

• bitcoin up 1.8%,
• Euro up 0.4%,
• global equities all up,
• energy (except NG!) up, Brent by 1.5% to $48.8,
• all government bond yields up (except the EU core),
• curves up (US).

The SPX hit an all-time high. GS gave …

There are comments.

Snippets

• Bonds and equities continue to point in opposite directions as far as how they are discounting the future,

Econ thoughts

There is a huge amount of discussion about MMT. It occurred to me that MMT is “true” when the economy is in a liquidity trap, i.e. changes in …

There are comments.

Wrap

The steepener trade caught a bid. The ostensible reason is that J Powell made a statement that the Fed would not raise the short end of the curve until they see real evidence of inflation. All too often the Fed has not waited until it saw the whites of …

There are comments.

Wrap

Severely risk-off day, except for a few assets that have retraced from violent movements last week.

• DX up again, most other currencies down,
• BTC up an insane 14%. This thing can never function as a “unit of account,”
• Commodities generally down, except NG which always moves against oil. Nearby …

There are comments.

Thomas Picton

Thomas Picton is a controversial figure. He fought bravely for his country, for which he’s remembered in a statue in Cardiff. He was also involved in slavery and, at least by modern standards, inhumane behaviour during the time he was governor of Trinidad. A campaign has been …

There are comments.