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1. The Fed, inequality and inflation

   Crumbs

   • Investment grade debt ($LQD) suffering outflows. (Daily Shot),
   • every major currency has appreciated against the dollar this year. Since the nadir of Covid, the AUD has done best: a proxy for CNH, no doubt. Worst has been JPY. The NOK, SEK, NZD, MXP SKW and SAR have done pretty …

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2. Worse than wrong

   Morning report

   Stocks are down, yields are down, the curve is flattening. Brexit is claimed to be the reason, but I have no reason to believe it. Usually, a treasury secretary or a central banker is wheeled out at this point to promise more fiscal or monetary stimulus. I have …

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3. Leisure, not jobs. Rising yields, not rising employment

   Britains Green New Deal

   Jonathan Ford rightly rubbishes the proposals from the government to create jobs. The argument is well rehearsed. The fallacy is to assume that all jobs are equally productive. They are not. The sole purpose of economic activity is to consume, and the market is the perfect …

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4. More Kleptopia

   Do we really have robust jobs growth?

   This questions the strength of the recovery in jobs in the UK.

   source: tradingeconomics.com

   Oil

   Demand is weak in the west, but strong in Asia. Shale is (surely?) not coming back. Libya and Iran may start selling. Who knows what will happen …

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5. November hits the dust, BTC hits the stratosphere

   Wrap

   Severely risk-off day, except for a few assets that have retraced from violent movements last week.

   • DX up again, most other currencies down,
   • BTC up an insane 14%. This thing can never function as a “unit of account,”
   • Commodities generally down, except NG which always moves against oil. Nearby …

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6. Another day, another SARS-Cov2 vaccine!

   Eurodollar Futures

   Most futures contracts are liquid out for a couple of delivery dates, maybe four or five if you’re lucky. The exception is Eurodollar futures (nothing to do with the Euro currency: just dollar deposits held by institutions outside of the US). They are liquid out for years …

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7. Election Fever

   Opening call

   Things seem risk off. Mondays in Europe are odd, because the US sets the tone for markets, but DX is up, commodities are generally down, European equities down quite a bit (ESTX50 down 1.4%). 10 years are up (yields down). This is almost a full house of …

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8. A FED-issued digital currency is a big deal

   The FED is toying with the idea of injecting money directly into consumers’ wallets

   This article is about the FED toying with the idea of issuing a digital currency. This is equivalent to allowing ordinary consumers to have an account with the FED, and not just the commercial banks and …

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9. Value, commodities, emerging markets

   CCR (CONSOL Coal Resources LP)

   Greenlight Capital holds a ton of this. Div. yield > 34%.

   MOS

   https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379722-mosaic-room-to-run-on-back-of-wheat-prices

   The thesis is that with wheat prices on a roll, fertilizer is going to be in increased demand. Sounds plausible. Energy is an input into nitrogenous fertilizers, and that …

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