Other articles

  1. The Fed, inequality and inflation


    • Investment grade debt ($LQD) suffering outflows. (Daily Shot),
    • every major currency has appreciated against the dollar this year. Since the nadir of Covid, the AUD has done best: a proxy for CNH, no doubt. Worst has been JPY. The NOK, SEK, NZD, MXP SKW and SAR have done pretty …
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  2. Worse than wrong

    Morning report

    Stocks are down, yields are down, the curve is flattening. Brexit is claimed to be the reason, but I have no reason to believe it. Usually, a treasury secretary or a central banker is wheeled out at this point to promise more fiscal or monetary stimulus. I have …

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  3. November hits the dust, BTC hits the stratosphere


    Severely risk-off day, except for a few assets that have retraced from violent movements last week.

    • DX up again, most other currencies down,
    • BTC up an insane 14%. This thing can never function as a “unit of account,”
    • Commodities generally down, except NG which always moves against oil. Nearby …
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  4. Another day, another SARS-Cov2 vaccine!

    Eurodollar Futures

    Most futures contracts are liquid out for a couple of delivery dates, maybe four or five if you’re lucky. The exception is Eurodollar futures (nothing to do with the Euro currency: just dollar deposits held by institutions outside of the US). They are liquid out for years …

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  5. Election Fever

    Opening call

    Things seem risk off. Mondays in Europe are odd, because the US sets the tone for markets, but DX is up, commodities are generally down, European equities down quite a bit (ESTX50 down 1.4%). 10 years are up (yields down). This is almost a full house of …

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  6. Value, commodities, emerging markets

    CCR (CONSOL Coal Resources LP)

    Greenlight Capital holds a ton of this. Div. yield > 34%.



    The thesis is that with wheat prices on a roll, fertilizer is going to be in increased demand. Sounds plausible. Energy is an input into nitrogenous fertilizers, and that …

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