Money is a complicated thing. Ratios of values of complicated things are … doubly complicated. There is no shortage of economic literature on what FX rates should be, but no economist ever got rich by using economic theory to position his FX exposure.
Well, possibly Keynes actually did …
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For me, equity prices are dependent on so many factors, it’s hard to know what is driving them over any given timescale. With forex, there are a variety of simple models, such as covered interest rate parity, which help one think about why …
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I’ve recently got interested in venture capital. I just finished “The Power Law” by Sebastian Mallaby, which is all about the history of venture capital, and why it worked so well in Silicon Valley and why it has been so hard to transplant …
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Read this. It’s about how ATMs work, by Patrick McKenzie. It’s fascinating, in that it explains, in a highly readable way, how one boring, mundane, piece of our financial infrastructure works. But set aside a bit of time, because it is insanely complicated.
If you think …
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“The Fed is gonna pivot!” Yeah, well it will eventually, but J Powell wants to be Volker’s second coming, not the hapless Arthur Burns. Even though, at the time, citizens were burning effigies of Volker, he has ascended to the pantheon of central …
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Stocks, like individuals, have character and personality. Some are high-strung, nervous, and jumpy: others are forthright, direct, logical. One comes to know and respect individual securities. Their action is predictable under varying sets of conditions.
Markets never stand still. They are very dull at …
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https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/federal_government_not_ready_for_high_rates/?mc_cid=793a116649&mc_eid=a3bd2f3664
All governments promise to ‘fix’ the deficit, but no government dares to cut spending or raise taxes. The various factors that have sent rates to zero have allowed this unsustainable …
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This abridged report tries to make sense of why, even though energy prices have been so high recently, oil companies still seem very slow to invest in production. The argument is subtle. I will attempt to summarize it: - investors are still refusing to value exploration companies …
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