2022-12-12

Inflation

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fifth straight month to 7.1% in November of 2022, the lowest since December last year, and below forecasts of 7.3%. It follows a reading of 7.7% in October. Energy cost increased 13.1%, below 17 …

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2022-12-08

Covid Conspiracy

This post argues that gain-of-function research played a role in the origins of Covid-19. It’s by Dan Sirotkin, who might or might not have attended Harvard, but who did spend time in prison, but is a join author of some serious-looking academic papers (e.g. this …

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2022-12-07

Dad Joke

Q: Why are bakers always broke? A: Because they always knead (need) dough.

OK, I apologize. I was reminded of that joke from my infancy when I saw that wheat, a crop that is heavily dependent on artificial fertilizers, is cheaper now than it was a year …

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2022-12-06

This article argues that the Fed is going to have to cut, and cut a lot, creating a huge steepening. Maybe the crash in oil prices (and the downturn in stocks, which amounts to a tightening) will be the nail in the coffin of further above-expectation rate hikes.

Wrap …

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2022-12-05

The problem with nuclear waste

Read this! It is by far the best account I have ever read about what to do about waste from fission reactors. There is a lot of irrational fear about nuclear power, because the physics that allows power stations to work is the same …

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2022-12-01

Ramaphosa

The president of South Africa had $580K in notes stolen from a farm. He believes that keeping notes stuffed in a sofa is a better idea than keeping them in a safe. And, of course it’s entirely normal to pay cash for a transaction involving more than …

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2022-11-30

The Fed to U-Turn (no, just kidding!)

Markets went mad today. The NASDAQ 100 is up 3%. He said:

“It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating …

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2022-11-29

I’m back

I’ve been on holiday, and since coming back trying to catch up with my day job. Fortunately, the market seems to have been completely directionless in November. There are big macro factors at play, but none of them seem close to being resolved. The Fed …

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THE CHALLENGE OF SPECULATION

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

Over a long period of years …

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Growth and inequality

To explore the question further, our study estimated a relationship for GDP per capita in which a change in income inequality was added to standard growth drivers such as physical and human capital. The idea was to test whether the change in income inequality over time has …

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