1. What is the correct relationship between science, scientists, policy and politicians?

    Published: Sun 10 May 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In misc.

    Why don’t scientists go into politics?

    Given that almost no active national-level polician has any meaningful training in science (even at an undergraduate level, but certaintly not as a research scientist), it’s remarkable how so much of policy is claimed to be ‘science based’.

    Scientists are trained to …

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  2. I’m back, sort of

    Published: Mon 04 May 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In misc.

    Background to this blog

    I had a pile of markdown stuff from my time as a councillor, which was turned into a website using the hpstr template for jekyll. TBH, I never really understood Jekyll, and I found hugo pretty difficult to use. I’ve been getting into Python more …

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  3. 15th April 2020

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    15th April 2020

    OK, last week has been pretty awful. The Fed went all in on stimulus and there was a face-ripping rally of all risk assets. You lost a lot. Ugh. Lots of stops triggered. Yesterday was also a risk-on day, and you lost money, although you did sell …

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  4. 17th April 2020

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    Friday 17th April 2020

    OK, I’ve kinda gone delta-neutral on my long long-dated puts on TSLA, RUT and BA with shorter-dated short puts. This was a smart move. The market has been rocketing lately, for no obvious reason, as usual. At least I haven’t been damaged too badly …

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  5. 1st April 2020

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    1st April 2020

    Trades

    • (Late yesterday): NQ, GC both sold by stop
    • (Early this morning): ES & 3333 (China Evergrande) stopped (this and previous at a loss).

    SX7P option sold via limit (up $10K).

    • at desk this morning: sold 9 SX7P futures, to rebalance the hedge at a $3K loss,
    • 5am …
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  6. 2020_april_20th

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    20th April 2020

    Overview as of now (4:20pm): equities quiet, CL down 8%.

    Your trades:

    • trimmed TSLA to edge a big more -ve,
    • sold some calls vs short cash because … stonks!
    • pyramiding the Incredible Hulks trade. Not sure it wouldn’t be simpler just to short CL,
    • bought one …
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  7. 2nd April 2020 \(Jerry’s birthday\)

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    2nd April 2020 (Jerry’s birthday)

    Stops and limits

    OK, overnight, a few stops were triggered, with some modest downside. Your short in DJ600 went again. The good thing was that this has dropped your risk level a lot. Because of the insane volatility, this is a good thing.

    Morning …

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  8. 6th Apr 2020

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    6th Apr 2020

    Morning

    Couldn’t bear to open TWS. Indexes in Asia and Europe bouncing on slightly reduced rate of increase of cases. I can’t see this bailing out the companies, but the market is looking for a reason to bounce, and found it today.

    wolfstreet property mutual …

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  9. April Wrapup

    Published: Thu 30 April 2020
    Updated: Tue 22 November 2022
    By steve

    In markets.

    April Overview

    Current state of play

    Oil is very weak on a combination of demand and supply. Donald J Pump made it go up 5% on 3rd April, but surely it’s trend will not be reversed. The “Incredible Hulks” trade should survive, but DJP has badly injured it.

    US …

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