Jackson Hole

It came as a surprise to nobody who is even vaguely aware of what Jackson Hole is (apart from a holiday resort) that J Powell is going to allow inflation to run hot and put more emphasis on jobs than price stability. There was quite a bit of volatility in the market over this, but eventually things settled down much where they were yesterday.

This, surely, tilts the probability distribution of where inflation will be in a years’ time over to the right, but exactly what happens, nobody knows. If they did, they certainly would not be earning a crust writing analyst reports for Bloomberg or an investment bank, as they would be richer than Jeff Bezos ($200 billion, and counting).

Wrap

Most equity markets down. Bonds down too: what? Commodities up, mainly, except gold, which was down. VIX up, so I guess overall risk off.