Friday 22, July 2022
Hollow men
Ben Hunt has a compelling message. It’s that unconventional monetary theory, practice in Japan, the US, and basically throughout the developed world, is destabilizing because it systematically increases inequality. He says it in a rather verbose style, which reduces his impact, in my view. You can read an example here. To be fair, he sort of admits that the preambles to his posts are a distraction, and that he has stopped doing it. The linked post is an old favourite, so still has the ‘schtick’.
Lots of people have pointed out the disproportionate returns to capital over labour over the last forty years. Hunt identifies a cause. Whereas different economies have had different experiences, and globalization has done a lot of damage, as well as the entry of women into the professional workforce in very large number, quantitative easing has certainly not helped.
Tweet
Still trying to figure this one out—surprising on timing/pace.
— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) July 21, 2022
Is it:
- demand coming off fast?
- ref maintenance rolling over?
- an uptick in Chinese exports we haven’t seen in the data yet?
- Russian refining throughout bouncing back as they find a home for their fuel oil/VGO? https://t.co/WARdaJy6dy
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Worth reading
Chronic illness makes UK workforce the sickest in developed world. (Sorry, this is paywalled.) Interesting article about how long-term illness has a disproportionate impact on the size of the UK workforce, as a percentage of the working-age population. The article identifies the failures of the NHS. I suspect that’s a factor, but it’s complicated, as the interesting discussion in the FT after the article makes clear.
Wrap
Michael Burry tweeted that it was wrong for Nancy Pelosi’s husband to be allowed to make trades which almost certainly are informed by inside information from his wife. The latest case was Nvidia, where a bill to give large subsidies to semiconductor companies who do fabrication in the USA must have been known about by Nancy Pelosi before it became public information.
Snapchat cratered. Unprofitable big tech is a sector to avoid.
Oil sank: this week’s movement has been dire as recession seems increasingly likely. The ECB seems to be determined to drive Europe into recession.
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