Realistic expectations of investment returns

This is from Rowan Street’s latest investor letter (the link gives all letters, which are downloadable PDFs).

Rowan Street’s philosophy is to “hang on in there.” Maybe this is right, but this might be tested later this year.

Biden builds back bigger

Well, if this is not bearish for the dollar, what can be? (A: it isn’t.)

Giving poor people money allows them to buy food

Which makes food prices increase …

Fraud news

• $CELH (Celsius Holdings) — fraudulent healthy drinks with celebrity endorsement,
• Triterras (NASDAQ: TRIT — $1.10 billion) — blockchain baloney, supposedly using blockchain for trade finance,
• Root Insurance (NASDAQ: ROOT — $3.94 billion) — phone GPS tracking app supposedly identifies safe drivers.

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Wrap

This is the first day of the Biden presidency. It was pretty quiet, but slightly risk on, i.e. deflationary but mainly flat:

• EUR up 0.5%,
• Brent up 0.5% but WTI down 0.5%!
• Most international markets up ~0.2%,
• Gold up 0.1%,
• US 10 year, 1.107% — up a fraction,
• $TIP up 0.2% (i.e. inflationary),
• Credit down a tad ($HYG down 0.1%, $LQD down 0.4%).
• Global curves steepened in unison, even core Eurozone joined the party!

News: not much. ECB announced their were leaving rates on hold. Nobody expected that!