17 Aug 2021

Afghanistan

As some wag pointed out, Twitter is full of Covid experts who double up as US foreign policy experts. I would never claim to be an expert, but I’ve never heard anyone sensible and disinterested arguing that the Afghan army ever had a chance against the Taliban. For a start, they are much more vulnerable than the US troops in that their families are living in the damn country. The other thing is that, as I understand it, the corrupt officials in the old regime would steal the money that was supposed to be used to pay them to boost their Swiss Bank account balances.

Another problem is the huge conflict of interest between ordinary citizens and the defence industry. Eisenhower saw it coming, in his valedictory speech as president in 1961:

Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations.

This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.

SPAC sponsors are not your friends

This is a fantastic piece about why the incentives faced by SPAC sponsors are very unaligned with those of the ordinary investor.

A whole range of SPACs have collapsed, since about the 8th August. My guess is that they’ll mainly be like the bubble stocks from 2000, i.e. burnt-out shells within the year. However, some might have a solid business model and be the Amazon of the 2050s. Those who have a powerful magnet might like to tackle this job like they’d tackle finding a needle in a haystack. Others would probably be better advised to do something less risky.

Why is the construction sector so resistant to innovation?

https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-its-hard-to-innovate-in-construction

There is no one single reason, but a big problem is the structure of the industry, with many layers of subcontractors, which leads to a breakdown of incentives. The best way to avoid things going wrong is to avoid any untried techniques. Contractors, who need to be persuaded of the benefit of new materials, do not capture any of the upside in using them. Very often the architect specifies traditional materials and techniques, because this makes it easier for him to run the competition. He has no incentive to recommend anything newfangled, especially as his fees are usually a percentage of the total cost.