Sunday 20, February 2022

Weekend Wrap

I don’t believe in technical analysis. But I also don’t believe that stock prices move in a pure random walk. The marginal buyer changes over time. Many owners of stock are siloed. Most stock holdings are passive now, which means that buying and selling is driven by random allocations by final investors, not highly paid analysts who know a bubble when they see one. Knowledge diffuses slowly, but after six weeks of declining prices, more and more end-investors are going to hear that the fashion for tech is very 2021.

This is a mega-cap growth ETF. The Nasdaq looks much the same. The future does not look bright, although the Fed put might yet save it.

As usual, this is not advice, of any kind.