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This article by By Neil Irwin and Weiyi Cai explains how it can be that shutting down so much of the US economy can result in US consumers having an extra $1Trn to spend or save. Basically, there was a lot of govt. support, and a relatively small number wealthy people saw a surge in their earnings which was sufficient to offset a mass
$JOE getting some good coverage.
Alex Manzara has produced a wonderful 1st post of 2021. Read it and savour it. Summary:
- M2 in the US is exploding. There will be consequences,
- Gold, SPX, BBG Agricultural Index (BCOMAG) is up 15% on the year, 40% up on the lows,
- Base metals are up 50% on their lows,
- Commodities still are cheap compared with equities,
- The Fed actually has three mandates: the (badly) hidden one is financial stability. They don’t really try to hide it.
- Jack Ma is now an outlaw, on the run from the CCP (well, missing, anyhow). $BABA probably went up.
- USA vs. China is going to become military, and spending is going up,
- The EU made a mistake by signing a trade deal with China,
- governments are going to continue to bribe voters with their own money.
Stocktwits weekly wrap notes that $FCX, Freeport McMoRan is going up steeply. Freeport is a big copper miner.
FCA and PSA merge to form Stellantis. Experts have been predicting a consolidation of the global auto manufacturing industry. Maybe this is the modest slide that turns into a global avalanche. a
Wrap
- Most global equity markets down, but modestly,
- Energy holding up well. OPEC meeting today: presumably hopes of holding the line,
- yield curves relatively unchanged,
- Govt. bond yields down in EU core, up almost everywhere else,
- Corp. yields all creeping up, virtually globally.
- USD down a bit vs. EUR but only by 22bp.
General tone: risk off.
Stocks getting interest: $CMAC (Playboy SPAC), $TSLA (up, with most tech stocks down). Worries about GA runoff election. $400M spent on campaigns for 2 senators. Ugly.
My guess for tomorrow: $BTC will crash. Not advice.
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