Crumbs
-
Tobin’s Q is the market cap (of the SPX) as a multiple of the replacement cost of the assets. When a lot of assets are software and market dominance, this is hard to measure. Either the market is massively overvalued or the metric is no longer meaningful. Suggested by this but the image seems to have disappeared. It was Q lagged by 10 years. This is not a market timing signal that can be readily used. -
it’s now twenty years since we were allowed to carry a bottle of shampoo onto a plane which contains more than 100ml. No plane suffered any injury from an attack based on a large container of potentially explosive material, ever. The ban was created in the aftermath of 9/11. It has never been reversed. We will be wearing masks in shops in twenty, maybe thirty years.
-
Top ETFs of 2020 (fairly predictable, in retrospect):
- Vincent Deluard is plugging a reflation thesis again. I think he is spot on. He’s recommending Latin American stocks, and this time the IBEX35. The index has quite a few banks, energy cos, utiltities. A bit (but not much) real estate, tourism, aviation (IAG). Might be worth a look. There is very little IT, but a bit. Options trade on an IV of 20%, which seems pretty cheap. The Euro is a headwind, but I doubt it can go up very much further (haha).
Wrap
Main news seems to be about whether or not the Republicans will cave into Trump’s demands for a $2,000 stimulus ‘check’ to all Americans. Vaccines are now being given, 2M in the USA. My view is that this is going to happen, and will eventually turn into UBI. The markets are less convinced. Bonds held steady, $DXY giving only a fraction, now standing at 90.
Equities were mixed, NDX up, DJIA down, SPX down 0.12%. The standout performer was the Nikkei, up 2.66%. US house prices have gone up 7.9% over a year to October. The Nikkei surged 2.7%, possibly itself a consequence of positive news on vaccines. Some big moves in Jap pharma stocks linked to joint ventures with Pfizer.
Comments !