Ideas picked up:

• Dollar demand is still high,
• lots of industries, particularly automotive in Europe, have a lot of debt coming due. Also insurance, tech, capital goods. More stress coming, as longer rates move up,
• big upward moves in SPX are characteristic of a bear market.
• 10Y-3M spread going -ve has 100% record of forecasting recessions!
• Bunds are showing stress - very large upward moves, but still -ve.
• Lots of oil states are going to have budget crises. Oman, KSA, UAE, Iraq. Russia is relatively safe.
• Trillions and trillions in stimulus are going to trigger inflation.

Courtesy of Daily Shot, the market ear, and Michael McIntyre

• [One of things people refused to believe was that equities could collapse despite the Fed accelerating their money printing in the event of recession. But liquidity is not compelled to flow into risk assets. It only does in the absence of recession. Gov Bonds are where it will go

Quote Tweet

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