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Oil forecast

Currently, oil is trending down.

Commodities fading

Strong move down in commodities. Is this the consensus trade fading?

Crazy Cathie lives up to her name

Just listen to her, if you can bear to. Pick up the remarks at around 11m30s. Insane: she breezily dismisses the risk …

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Marxist political theory update

After my comments a few days ago about Marxist theory of political power, I thought I’d better educate myself. This article explains the theory quite well, I think. Marx and Weber/Pareto seem to differ. Marx thought that political leaders automatically followed the (maybe …

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Grant’s Almost Daily

Business model tweaks with Chinese characteristics. The Wall Street Journal reports today that China’s central government will ask local authorities to change the procedure for conducting land auctions, holding them in bulk at select times during the year instead of the current piecemeal, ad …

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The sheer volume of posts saying “inflation is coming, bonds are dead” is becoming overwhelming. The latest is Ray Dalio, here. I don’t suppose he’s saying anything amazingly insightful, but he controls a lot of money, and has made a lot. Others will listen. Of course, many …

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CAD as petro currency

Pinecone likes CAD and dislikes JPY. Sounds like a good call.

Governance and investment returns

• SPACs and LSE,
• dual voting structure for FB etc.,
• Berkshire Hathaway,
• HP & Carly F,
• Schroders,
• Ford, and bankruptcy,
• Fiat,
• BMW, VW, Walmart, Exor list,

The sheer insanity of the US budget …

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Yes, the EV sector is absurdly over valued

This article makes a compelling case that battery electric vehicle makers will as a group crash and burn. Or, at least their share prices will. Well, the majority, probably, unless one emerges as the dominant force in the global market. It compares …

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The theory is that reflation powers small cap. A lot of these do not produce any net income, let alone a yield, which undermines my thesis that the main effect is carry costs. Who knows, but this is a dramatic demonstration that something is happening, probably to sentiment.

• Another …

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Why are the companies that have invested insane amounts in AI, and have terabytes of data about my interests, serve me such irrelevant adverts?

It seems I’m not the only one to ask this question.

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• Some people are being taken for a $RIDE.
• Harley Bassman launches a product …

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By Katie Greifeld (Bloomberg) — Making cash in the world of credit insurance
typically involves a special license and strategies that cost
millions of dollars to run. Rates expert Harley Bassman wants to
do it in a low-cost exchange-traded fund.
Bassman, who created the MOVE Index to track Treasury
volatility, is …

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Supply and demand for labour is a difficult thing to measure. Unemployment and workforce participation can move in the same direction. There is usually between a third and a half of the workforce of most developed economies which are not in paid employment, which suggests a terrible lack of …

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