Crumbs

• another bullish note on natural gas
• China equities look over bought. The market is heavily manipulated, and it’s not easy to short, but maybe it’s run out of steam for a bit,
• 
• Yield Curve Control is coming. But the Fed will not tell you it’s arrived …

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Energy

I’m quite bullish on energy. Commodities have been weak for a long time, and the biggest (‘consumable’) commodity of oil is oil. The relatively strong dollar has held down commodity prices, and it has weakened, but now it’s going back up again. Short dollar is supposedly the …

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Autist repetition

I know I sound like Bill Cash droning on about Europe, but the sheer weight of interest in inflation recently has been amazing. A lot of mainstream press is suddenly saying “Whoa, why are interest rates going up? Is there really no negative consequence of the US Treasury …

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Crumbs

Eurodollar futures sound deadly dull and boring. Their implied vols (~0.8%) back that up. But they are starting to move, and when a Panamax sized ship of this size starts moving, it’s damn hard to stop!

It’s easy for retail traders to short the Nasdaq. These …

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Crumbs

• the market is starting to move to a bear market mentality, in SPX, NDX, SOX (semiconductors), FAANG etc. We can’t know the future, but we can have a gut feel about it, and the consensus seems to be that rates are going higher, and with them DX, which …

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Calum Thomas’ Thesis

Calum Thomas combines his top charts ideas into one. His ideas are: 1. global equities should outperform US ones, 2. emerging markets (EM) should outperform developed ones (demographics, deficits, trade), 3. EM ex-Asia should outperform EM within Asia: rotation play, 4. Value will outperform growth (it’s …

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Crumbs

• Lyn Alden thinks that the Fed will not resort to yield curve control. Yet.
• FT Article explaining that liquidity of the Treasury market is not as great as people would like.

  Banks often blame bouts of illiquidity on post-crisis regulations constraining their ability to make markets, and the influx …

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Crumbs

• Citi issues Muskian research on Bitcoin. Basically, some weary interns plundered the content of the Ponzi-like 99Bitcoins.com and turned it into a 108 page Citi report, complete with absurd claims such as that 36% of all US retailers accept BTC as a means of payment. Never forget that …

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Stocks and Bonds

The so-called ‘Fed Model’ of the stock market says that you can just compare the dividend yield (or free cashflow yield, EBITDA yield etc.) with bond yields, to get a handle on what the stock market is doing. So, if yields fall, the stockmarket goes up (because …

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Notes

• AO Smith might be worth a look,

KEDM summary

Stocks to watch:

• $FRTT: gold producer (miner?); a spin-off
• Technip Industries ($TE) is a forced exit play,
• $FSP has a lot of insiders buying,
• $COTY same,
• $BW same,
• $CNDT same,

• $SPOK, cluster buy, has momentum.

• $ELVT on buybacks,

• $WRLD has …

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