Inflation worry watch

Bloomberg is in on the act. This argues that because the pandemic pushed down the price level this year, as we normalize the readings are going to look bad next year, even if the real price level isn’t much changed from where it was expected to …

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Britains Green New Deal

Jonathan Ford rightly rubbishes the proposals from the government to create jobs. The argument is well rehearsed. The fallacy is to assume that all jobs are equally productive. They are not. The sole purpose of economic activity is to consume, and the market is the perfect …

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Do we really have robust jobs growth?

This questions the strength of the recovery in jobs in the UK.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Oil

Demand is weak in the west, but strong in Asia. Shale is (surely?) not coming back. Libya and Iran may start selling. Who knows what will happen …

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Wrap

Today was a risk on day:

• bitcoin up 1.8%,
• Euro up 0.4%,
• global equities all up,
• energy (except NG!) up, Brent by 1.5% to $48.8,
• all government bond yields up (except the EU core),
• curves up (US).

The SPX hit an all-time high. GS gave …

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Snippets

• Bonds and equities continue to point in opposite directions as far as how they are discounting the future,

Econ thoughts

There is a huge amount of discussion about MMT. It occurred to me that MMT is “true” when the economy is in a liquidity trap, i.e. changes in …

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Wrap

The steepener trade caught a bid. The ostensible reason is that J Powell made a statement that the Fed would not raise the short end of the curve until they see real evidence of inflation. All too often the Fed has not waited until it saw the whites of …

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Wrap

Severely risk-off day, except for a few assets that have retraced from violent movements last week.

• DX up again, most other currencies down,
• BTC up an insane 14%. This thing can never function as a “unit of account,”
• Commodities generally down, except NG which always moves against oil. Nearby …

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Thomas Picton

Thomas Picton is a controversial figure. He fought bravely for his country, for which he’s remembered in a statue in Cardiff. He was also involved in slavery and, at least by modern standards, inhumane behaviour during the time he was governor of Trinidad. A campaign has been …

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Wrap

Most dealers not at work, but some market activity:

• [Turkish Lira fighting the bears. ]
• [Gold getting crushed, ]
• [Bitcoin imploding, but from recent highs, but the stockmarket equivalent, $TSLA, still rising]
• [Food and Ag. commodities doing well ]
• [Hydrocarbon complex mixed, but crude oil down to $45.52 after a strong …

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What I’ve been following on Twitter

You can follow me on Twitter. But don’t. I am not going to lead you anywhere interesting. I have, however, curated a few lists of people who know stuff. The full set is here. I have a few lists I’ve put …

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