Monday 30, May 2022

International Health Outcomes Index

It’s remarkable how well Japan does, and how badly the US does. We are depressingly low in the table, well below countries like Portugal, which have much lower GDP per capita than the UK. The NHS, while scoring well on access …

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Sunday 29, May 2022

Shadow Banning

I like Twitter. It works for me. I can easily unfollow (or mute, or turn off re-tweets etc.) to fine tune the stuff I see in my timeline. A lot of very smart people are on Twitter, and I’ve learned a lot from …

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Friday 27, May 2022

Rudy Havenstein

Rudy got kicked off Twitter, even though all he ever did was hurl hand grenades at the Fed and the US Treasury. I don’t think he’s always right, but he’s always interesting. His theory is that the Fed is the font …

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Thursday 26, May 2022

A chart to strike terror into the heart of any trader

The tendency of all organizations to become self-serving

This is about how criminal, and other enterprises, tend to degrade in their morality over time. The author makes the case that organizations become focussed on their …

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Wednesday 25, May 2022

Found in The Rational Walk’s weekly digest for last week

Worth a read:

• Madoff and FTX. Pam Martens draws parallels between a crypto exchange (FTX) and the Bernie Madoff Ponzi. As ever, the SEC were extremely reluctant to act. What was remarkable was how Madoff …

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Tuesday 24, May 2022

Housing-led recession?

This

Five year breakevens rolling over

 https://www.tradingview.com/x/1kdTOYjT/

Wrap

The market seems to have decided that a recession is coming. The shorter and longer yield curves are inverted. Bonds rallied across the board today. Although the DJIA eked out a …

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Monday 23, May 2022

Chart of doom

For some reason, the cult of equities is still alive, even though it should long ago have departed the scene.

Anyway, we are finally seeing some flows out of equity passive funds. I am not quite sure what a “Financials ETF Flow” is …

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Friday 20, May 2022

I was too busy today to make a regular post, so I just noted a few interesting things I read recently.

Things I’ve read

• Who’s driving the crypto bus? Brent Donnelly points out that there are tight correlations across seemingly unrelated markets, but that …

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Covid hangover

The policy response to Covid was unprecedented. As pandemics go, it was relatively benign, but the fiscal response was off the scale. It seems likely that the reversal of some of these measures will kill growth (or, to be charitable, reveal that the recent spike in growth has …

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Monday 16 May

The dollar

I always think of a price as a ratio. The ratio between the value of the thing (a house, an hour of work, an Amazon share), and the value of the currency in which it is denominated. The dollar has been on a tear recently …

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