Tuesday 22, March 2022

Wrap

Oil is now at $111 a barrel, and nobody knows where it’s going. Clearly, the high prices will drive more production, and a lot of oil can be produced at less than $100. However, Russia is 10% of global supply, and it’s not …

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Monday 21, March 2022

Bear Cave 109

I am a huge fan of Edwin Dorsey. He writes a weekly newsletter (free!) with stocks which may be worth looking at more closely, of which the management may have been involved in fraud. The price of these stocks have usually crashed before …

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Saturday 19, March 2022

Market Huddle

Jimmy Jude on Market Huddle: ED futures are due to have a rally. Powell, Yellen &c. do not want to do anything that in any way increases the chances of a Trump victory next time, including damage to the Dems at the mid-terms.

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Friday 18, March 2022

The future

Stanley Druckenmiller, possibly the best trader of all time, said something one time about a high proportion (40%) of his calls being wrong. The market is basically valuing stuff right, most of the time. Of course, trends go on too far and valuations become …

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Thursday 17, March 2022

Inversion Alert

To my mind, on of the finest free resources on the web is Alex Manzara’s blog, Chartpoint. Today’s entry is all about how the Fed yesterday spooked markets into inverting the 5Y-10Y curve, and generally bending the curve down over out over …

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Wed 16 March

Fed Decision Day!

The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate (which, I think, is also the interest rate on excess reserves) to 50bp. This was exactly what the market was expecting. The decision was well telegraphed by Powell and others, so no major reaction in the market …

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Tuesday 15, March 2022

Globalization

The FT ran a piece yesterday saying that removing Russia from Most Favoured Nation status in the WTO was not a great idea. It’s here but it might be behind a paywall. Sorry.

The article makes (at least) two arguments. One is that Russia …

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Monday 14, March 2022

Oil and Ukraine

China has been hit by many Omicron outbreaks. It’s lockdown strategy is failing, but the market is assuming that it will shut down its economy again, refusing to consider changing tactics. The war grinds on. Evidence seems to be mounting that the …

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Friday 11, March 2022

Who can we believe?

“The first casualty of war is the truth.” “They are not even pretending anymore. — Ben Hunt”

Control of the narrative is very important. We all learn that to get our own way, we have to persuade others of the correctness of our …

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Thursday 10, March 2022

Energy nonsense

Biden, his advisors, Kamala, the Twitter amanuensis, whoever it is that writes Biden’s tweets is clueless about energy. He uses the usual argument that it’s cheaper to use renewable energy, and so not using oil will save us money and benefit us …

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