Wednesday 9, March 2022

Wrap

Today was an explosively risk-on day. A few things happened: UAE suggested that OPEC would sell more oil, Zelenskyy said he’d talk to the Russians, people seem to have decided that the Fed and the ECB will hike less, or later than they were …

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Tuesday 8, March 2022

Wrap

Prices fluctuated. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine did not want to join NATO. I think that, in fact, he reiterated this, as it was part of the Minsk Accord, signed in 2014. I may be wrong here, but I have read that the idea that trends …

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Monday 7, March 2022

Wrap

The war in Ukraine is going on too long. The west has badly miscalculated Putin’s intentions, and it’s not clear what credible threats now will deter him from driving on until he’s conquered Ukraine. Economically, having Ukraine once more fall within Russia …

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Friday 4, March 2022

Moving money internationally

This is an insanely good essay on what it means to move money internationally, by someone who really understands what money is. You need to read it (H/T to Matt Levine who mentioned it in today’s column). What Patrick McKenzie points …

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Thursday 3, March 2022

Wrap

The war in Ukraine grinds on. More talks are scheduled, but no obvious resolution is in sight. The dollar strengthened, but the SPX did too, although the latter has been extremely choppy. Ark Innovation, as for many of its constituents, was extremely volatile.

Energy and …

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Wednesday 2, March 2022

Wrap

The only story in town is of oil becoming unanchored. The near month went up by nearly $8 a barrel. This is a commodity which was trading at a negative price a couple of years ago. The world seems to be waking up to the …

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Tuesday 1, March 2022

Wrap

Oil prices have gone up 76% YoY, 22% MoM and 15% in the last week. So far oil stocks and longer-dated contracts have not moved nearly so much, but inflation expectations are now so entrenched (in my view) that it will be a while before …

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Monday 28, February 2022

Wrap

I’ve been away, and much too busy with my day job to think much about what’s happening. We are still in the fog of war, and nobody knows that the outcome will be, but the following things might be worth thinking about:

• Russia …

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Friday 25, February 2022

Wrap

Money flowed from commodities to equities. In FX, investors sold USD for riskier currencies. Bond investors remain calm: the US 10Y is 3.5bp below 2%. Commodities sold off, apart from silver and copper, dragged down by oil, which had spiked on early news.

Main …

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Thursday 24, February 2022

Ukraine

Russia seems to have decided on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Markets reacted strongly this morning, with near-dated Brent futures shooting up a huge amount. Various EU and other countries condemned Russia, but at the end of the day, Russia is not going to be …

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