Wrap

Today was a risk on day:

• bitcoin up 1.8%,
• Euro up 0.4%,
• global equities all up,
• energy (except NG!) up, Brent by 1.5% to $48.8,
• all government bond yields up (except the EU core),
• curves up (US).

The SPX hit an all-time high. GS gave …

There are comments.

Snippets

• Bonds and equities continue to point in opposite directions as far as how they are discounting the future,

Econ thoughts

There is a huge amount of discussion about MMT. It occurred to me that MMT is “true” when the economy is in a liquidity trap, i.e. changes in …

There are comments.

Wrap

The steepener trade caught a bid. The ostensible reason is that J Powell made a statement that the Fed would not raise the short end of the curve until they see real evidence of inflation. All too often the Fed has not waited until it saw the whites of …

There are comments.

Wrap

Severely risk-off day, except for a few assets that have retraced from violent movements last week.

• DX up again, most other currencies down,
• BTC up an insane 14%. This thing can never function as a “unit of account,”
• Commodities generally down, except NG which always moves against oil. Nearby …

There are comments.

Wrap

Most dealers not at work, but some market activity:

• [Turkish Lira fighting the bears. ]
• [Gold getting crushed, ]
• [Bitcoin imploding, but from recent highs, but the stockmarket equivalent, $TSLA, still rising]
• [Food and Ag. commodities doing well ]
• [Hydrocarbon complex mixed, but crude oil down to $45.52 after a strong …

There are comments.

What I’ve been following on Twitter

You can follow me on Twitter. But don’t. I am not going to lead you anywhere interesting. I have, however, curated a few lists of people who know stuff. The full set is here. I have a few lists I’ve put …

There are comments.

Wrap

The US is barely at work today, with dealers thinking more about cooking and eating turkey than trading the currency of Turkey.

Overall, market is risk neutral:

• Bitcoin flat,
• Most other currencies likewise,
• SPX totally flat,
• Energy down, but after a steep rally yesterday, other sectors flat, small upticks …

There are comments.

Inflation talk

I am a great admirer of George Soros’s reflexivity theory. I don’t claim to fully understand it. Part of it is about our inability to fully understand anything, so this is covered by the theory. But the bit of it that I cling to is that …

There are comments.

Another day, another vaccine candidate

Astra-Zeneca announced today that it too had a very effective vaccine against SARS-Cov2. Who knew that it’d be so easy? The market didn’t react much, and just ground higher. Maybe it would have been five percent lower if the announcement had not …

There are comments.

Most mysterious market

It seems that JPM is totally bullish on equities.

We are certainly in a very strange world. A pandemic has trashed many visible parts of the economy: airlines, restaurants, hotels: i.e. mainly services. It has left most manufacturing, and large scale retailing (especially Amazon) not only …

There are comments.