Biden has made it across the line and what it means for markets

What the market thinks a Biden-Harris presidency will do is more important than what they will actually do. It seems to me that the market expects Biden to borrow and spend, with the Fed as a willing …

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Chart of the day

This is the 30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate: i.e. the average CPI rate which would make an investor indifferent between holding 30 year nominal gilts and 30 year TIPS. The rate is still below the target rate of 2%, but it’s approaching it at a …

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Election grinds on

Nobody really knows who will be the next president. Whatever happens, Trump-like policies will continue to find support, amongst Republicans, and amongst the population. The years of wrangling over Brexit is a template for what will come. Only Covid could stop Britons arguing about it. I wonder …

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Who will be the next POTUS?

It’s morning in the UK, and it’s too close to call. Biden has 220 EC votes, Trump 213. Biden has done much less well than expected, and could still lose. It still seems hard to believe that the Dems could put up …

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Markets today

The day started off fairly risk on. I don’t really know why. Commodities are doing OK, stocks globally are rallying strongly. Insiders, in the USA anyway, are not “buying the dip” unlike (it seems) the RobinHood crowd.

The long bond is down a bit, but a small …

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Markets today

Everyone is focussed on the presidential election. It’s an extremely ugly slow-motion car crash. It seems unbelievable that any good will come of it, but somehow within a week or so at max (surely?) we’ll know the result. The markets seem to have risk off fatigue …

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Markets today

Everyone is focussed on the presidential election. It’s an extremely ugly slow-motion car crash. It seems unbelievable that any good will come of it, but somehow within a week or so at max (surely?) we’ll know the result. The markets seem to have risk off fatigue …

There are comments.

VIX about to take off?

I am a fan of The Market Ear. Usually they post interesting charts. Today’s post was them talking to “The VIX guy” who said that the VIX was heading higher. Certainly, a lot of overvalued (IMHO) stocks are trending lower. Maybe this is when …

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Companies House

It’s nice to know that Companies House is focussed on diversity and inclusivity issues. It’s just a pity that it cannot bring as many resources to check key information on directors and shareholders of the legal entities in the registers it maintains. As anyone who has …

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Mid session comment

Most global equity markets down ~2.5% or more. MA down on earnings miss. Social media and Google stocks down because of congressional hearing. This is the sort of market where everything that can be sold is sold. The FAANG stocks are all faltering, but they have …

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